蓝水和绿水视角下划定“中国农业用水红线”探索

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2015.17.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水是制约中国粮食生产的最重要因素。实现中国粮食安全和口粮安全的战略目标必然要求粮食的持续增产，而粮食增产对水资源需求的增长又是刚性的、不可减少的。在多部门用水需求加大的情况下，如何保证农业用水量是亟待解决的科学和决策问题。文章首先回顾了国内外水资源管理领域的最新进展，总结了以“蓝水”（耕地灌溉）和“绿水”（耕地降水）理念为核心的农业水管理分析范式的转变。在基于蓝水和绿水视角下的“广义农业可用水资源”的概念和计算基础上，分析了1998—2012年中国农业（种植业中四大主要粮食作物）用水、耗水和水分生产力，并基于此提出了“农业用水红线”。根据研究时段内15年的中国粮食水分生产力的变化趋势，推导出2020年生产5.5×10⁸ t粮食所需要的农业用水红线的蓝水分量的高、中、低值。并根据近15年来广义农业可用水资源量中的绿水分量，推导出农业用水红线中绿水分量的高、中、低值。结果显示，到2020年，中国保证粮食安全的灌溉水需求总体平均在3 800×10⁸ m³左右，而农业用水红线中绿水分量平均在4 500×10⁸ m³左右。本研究最后提出了划定和实施农业用水红线的相关政策建议：从保护农业用水红线的角度，严格保护和实施“18亿亩耕地红线”；建立、健全完整、完善的蓝水和绿水测量和监督体系；加强以耕地土壤水为中心的农业用水和耗水管理；利用各地水热资源特点，调整种植结构；继续提高灌溉的保证程度；加强耕地基础设施建设，提高高标准农田和旱涝保收耕地面积和比例。本研究对回答农业部提出的治理农村环境污染“一控两减三基本”的基本方针中的“一控”中的“控水的底线（即农业用水红线）是什么？”具有重要的理论和实践参考价值。

关键词: 粮食安全, 广义农业可用水资源, 作物水分生产力, 蓝水, 绿水

Abstract: Water is the prime limiting factor in grain production in China. Agricultural water withdrawal has been under ever growing pressures in the context of population growth, economic development, urbanization process, diet change, and ecosystem preservation. However, to realize the national strategic goal of food security requires more grains to be produced, and consequently, does demand more water to be consumed. Hence, how to resolve the competing claims for water by various sectors while retaining adequate water for grain production will be the major challenge presenting to both researchers and decision makers. The paper firstly reviewed the state-of-the-arts ideas, concepts, and mindsets that had been emerged and developed in global water communities in the last 20 years, from which a paradigm shift in which green water and blue water lie at the center was identified and presented. Then, based on the “Broadly-defined Available Water for Agriculture (BAWA)” incorporating both green (i.e. cropland irrigation) and blue water (i.e. cropland precipitation) components, agricultural water use, consumption, and productivity were analyzed over a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012. Next the “Baselines for Agricultural Water Use” was proposed and proactively defined, in which blue water component was derived by projecting historical crop water productivity onto 2020. The green water component was likewise determined by using projection of last 15-year BAWA. The results showed that the redlines for blue water withdrawal in terms of assuring 550 million tons of grains to the year 2020 was 380 km³, while the green water component of the redlines was 450 km³. The paper proposed a set of policies in implementing the redlines, including conserving arable land and improving arable land infrastructure, building a sound-developed system for measuring and monitoring blue and green water, developing a water-adapted farming system, improving crop water productivity, and adopting basin- and region-scale water saving practices. The conclusion of the paper will also have implications for recent policy directives issued by China Ministry of Agriculture to combat agriculture-derived pollution in rural areas, “one control, two abatements, and three basic requirements”, of which one control means the definition of baseline agricultural water withdrawals and water use efficiency.

Key words: food security, Broadly-defined Available water for Agriculture (BAWA), crop water productivity, green water, blue water

李保国，黄峰. 蓝水和绿水视角下划定“中国农业用水红线”探索[J]. 中国农业科学, 2015, 48(17): 3493-3503.

LI Bao-guo, HUANG Feng. Defining the Baselines for China Agricultural Water Use in Green and Blue Water Approach[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2015, 48(17): 3493-3503.

0
/ / 推荐

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

链接本文: https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2015.17.015

https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/Y2015/V48/I17/3493

参考文献

[1] 陈印军, 肖碧林, 方琳娜, 马宏岭, 杨瑞珍, 易小燕, 李倩倩. 中国耕地质量状况分析. 中国农业科学, 2011, 44(17): 3557-3564.

Chen Y J, Xiao B L, Fang L N, Ma H L, Yang R Z, Yi X Y, Li Q Q. The quality analysis of cultivated land in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(17): 3557-3564. (in Chinese)

[2] 张维理, 武淑霞, 冀宏杰, Kolbe H. 中国农业面源污染形势估计及控制对策I. 21世纪初期中国农业面源污染的形势估计. 中国农业科学, 2004, 37(7): 1008-1017.

Zhang W L, Wu S X, Ji H J, Kolbe H. Estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China and the alleviating strategies I. Estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China in early 21 Century.Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2004, 37(7): 1008-1017. (in Chinese)

[3] 杨飞, 吴根义, 诸云强, 付强. 中国各省区未来主要畜禽养殖量及耕地氮载荷的预测. 水土保持研究, 2013, 3: 289-294.

Yang F, Wu G Y, Zhu Y Q, Fu Q. Forecast of livestock and poultry amount and arable land nitrogen load of Chinese provinces. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2013, 3: 289-294. (in Chinese)

[4] Ridoutt B G, Pfister S. A revised approach to water footprinting to make transparent the impacts of consumption and production on global freshwater scarcity. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 2010, 20: 113-120.

[5] 李保国, 黄峰. 1998-2007年中国农业用水分析. 水科学进展, 2010, 4: 575-583.

Li B G, Huang F. Trends in China’s agricultural water use during recent decade using the green and blue water approach. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 4: 575-583. (in Chinese)

[6] 陈锡文. 中国粮食安全面临五大历史性挑战. http://www.chinagrain. cn/liangyou/2014/11/24/201411241485255566.shtml

Chen X W. Five major challenges presented to food security in China. http://www.chinagrain.cn/liangyou/2014/11/24/201411241485255566.shtml (in Chinese)

[7] Falkenmark M. Meeting water requirements of an expanding world population. Philosophical Transaction of Royal Society of London, Series B, 1997: 352, 929-936.

[8] Molden D J. Accounting for water use and productivity. SWIM Paper 1. System-wide initiative for water management. International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 1997: 16.

[9] Seckler D. The new era of water resources management: From ‘dry’ to ‘wet’ water savings. Research Report 1. International Irrigation Management Institute, Colombo, 1996.

[10] Keller A A, Keller J. Effective efficiency: A water use efficiency concept for allocating freshwater resources. Discussion Paper 22. Center for Economic Policy Studies, Winrock International, 1995: 19.

[11] Droogers P, Kite G. Water productivity from integrated basin modeling. Irrigation and Drainage Systems, 1999, 13(3): 275-290.

[12] Allan J A. Virtual Water: A strategic resource global solutions to regional deficits. Groundwater, 1998, 36: 545-546.

[13] Molden D, Faurès J M, Finlayson C M, Gitay H, Muylwijk J, Schipper L, Vallée D, Coates D. Chapter 1. Setting the scene//Water for Food, Water for Life–A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Earthscan, Routeledge. Taylor & Francis, 2007.

[14] Rockstrom J, Lannerstad M, Falkenmark M. Assessing the water challenge of a new green revolution in developing countries// Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007, 104(15): 6253-6260.

[15] de Fraiture C. Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level. An application of WATERSIM. Water Resources Management, 2007, 21(1): 185-198.

[16] Rost S, Gerten D, Bondeau A, Lucht W, Rohwer J, Schaphoff S. Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resources Research, 2008, 44(9), doi: 10.1029/2007WR006331.

[17] Schuol J, Abbaspour K C, Srinivasan R, Yang H. Estimation of freshwater availability in the West African sub-continent using the SWAT hydrologic model. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 352(1/2): 30-49.

[18] Schuol J, Abbaspour K C, Yang H, Srinivasan R, Zehnder A J B. Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa. Water Resources Research, 2008, 44(7), doi: 10.1029/2007wr006609

[19] Faramarzi M, Abbaspour K C, Schulin R, Yang H. Modelling blue and green water resources availability in Iran. Hydrological Processes, 2009, 23(3): 486-501.

[20] Chiu Y W, Wu M. Assessing county-level water footprints of different cellulosic-biofuel feedstock pathways. Environmental Science & Technology, 2012, 46(16): 9155-9162.

[21] Sulser T B, Ringler C, Zhu T J, Msangi S, Bryan E, Rosegrant M W. Green and blue water accounting in the Ganges and Nile basins: Implications for food and agricultural policy. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 384(3/4): 276-291.

[22] Antonelli M, Roson R, Sartori M. Systemic input-output computation of green and blue virtual water ‘flows’ with an illustration for the Mediterranean Region. Water Resources Management, 2012, 26(14): 4133-4146.

[23] Siebert S, Doll P. Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 384(3/4): 198-217.

[24] Chapagain A M, Hoekstra A Y. The blue, green and grey water footprint of rice from production and consumption perspectives. Ecological Economics, 2011, 70(4): 749-758.

[25] Liu J G, Yang H. Spatially explicit assessment of global consumptive water uses in cropland: Green and blue water. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 384(3/4): 187-197.

[26] 罗其友, 高明杰, 姜文来, 陶陶, 唐曲. 农业综合生产能力安全与我国农业资源安全阈值测算. 农业现代化研究, 2010, 4: 392-396.

Luo Q Y, Gao M J, Jiang W L, Tao T, Tang Q. Study on resources threshold values based on agricultural comprehensive production capability security in China. Research on Agricultural Modernization. 2010, 4: 392-396. (in Chinese)

[27] 姜文来. 支撑粮食安全的农业水资源阈值研究与展望. 农业展望, 2010, 9: 23-25.

Jiang W L. Research and prospects on agricultural water use threshold that is to support food security. Agriculture Prospects, 2010, 9: 23-25. (in Chinese)

[28] Li B G, Huang F. Chapter 12, China’s food security and soil water management-a green and blue water approach. Soil Water and Agronomic Productivity//Lal R, Stewart B A. Advances in Soil Science Vol.19. CRC Press. Taylor and Francis. 325-346.

[29] Huang F, Li B G. Assessing grain crop water productivity of China using a hydro-model-coupled-statistics approach Part I: Method development and validation. Agricultural Water Management, 2010, 97(7): 1077-1092.

[30] Huang F, Li B G. Assessing grain crop water productivity of China using a hydro-model-coupled-statistics approach. Part II: Application in breadbasket basins of China. Agricultural Water Management, 2010, 97(9): 1259-1268.

[31] 吴普特, 赵西宁. 气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(2): 1-6.

Wu P T, Zhao X N. Impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production in China. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2010, 26(2): 1-6. (in Chinese)

[32] 王小军, 张建云, 王国庆, 贺瑞敏, 尚熳廷. 气候变化与农业用水安全. 中国农村水利水电, 2012, 2: 23-25, 29.

Wang X J, Zhang J Y, Wang G Q, He R M, Shang M T. Climate change and agricultural water security. Chinese Rural Water Development and Hydraulic Electricity, 2012, 2: 23-25, 29. (in Chinese)

[33] 水利部. 2012年中国水资源公报. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2013.

Ministry of Water Resources. Chinese Water Resources Bulletin 2012. Beijing: Chinese Water and Hydraulics Electricity Press, 2013. (in Chinese)

[34] 王玉宝, 吴普特, 赵西宁, 李甲林. 我国农业用水结构演变态势分析. 中国生态农业学报, 2010, 18(2): 399-404.

Wang Y B, Wu P T, Zhao X N, Li J L. Development tendency of agricultural water structure in China. Chinese Journal of Eco- Agriculture, 2010, 18(2): 399-404. (in Chinese)

[35] 吴普特, 赵西宁, 冯浩, 王玉宝. 农业经济用水量与我国农业战略节水潜力. 中国农业科技导报, 2007, 6: 13-17.

Wu P T, Zhao X N, Feng H, Wang Y B. Agricultural economic rational water consumption and strategy analysis for water saving potential in China. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 2007, 6: 13-17. (in Chinese)

[36] 山仑, 张岁岐. 能否实现大量节约灌溉用水?——我国节水农业现状与展望. 自然杂志, 2006, 2: 71-74.

Shan L, Zhang S Q. Is possible to save large irrigation water?-The situation and prospect of water-saving agriculture in China. Chinese Journal of Nature, 2006, 2: 71-74. (in Chinese)

[37] Li B G, Gong Y S, Zuo Q. Dynamic Modeling on Farmland Soil Water and Its Applications. Beijing: Science Press, 2000. (in Chinese)

[38] 李保国, 彭士琪. 中国农业用水报告1998-2007年. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2009.

Li B G, Peng S Q. Chinese Agricultural Water Use Bulletin 1998-2007. Beijing: Chinese Agricultural Press, 2009. (in Chinese)

[39] 全国农业技术推广服务中心. 中国农业用水报告2008年. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2013.

National Agricultural Technology Extension Service. Chinese Agricultural Water Use Bulletin 2008. Beijing: Chinese Agricultural Press, 2013. (in Chinese)

[40] 全国农业技术推广服务中心.中国农业用水报告2009年. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2013.

National Agricultural Technology Extension Service. Chinese Agricultural Water Use Bulletin 2009. Beijing: Chinese Agricultural Press, 2013. (in Chinese)