关键词: 粮食生产能力, 粮食安全评价, 机制法, 层次分析法, 亚太经合组织

Abstract: 【Objective】The APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), due to its great typicality and importance in world food system, was selected to conduct food security assessment among its economies in this study. 【Method】Intended to highlight grain production in food system, this study firstly used the mechanism method to calculate the productivity potential of radiation, thermal, climatic, land and grain production-potential in APEC region regressively, which was taken as the basis of food security assessment. And then some important indicators were selected to build the index system to assess the food security level in each APEC member economies by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). 【Result】The results show that the overall grain production potential of APEC region reaches as high as 1.7 billion tons. Compared with the real grain production of 1.1 billion tons, there is a possibility for all the economies to increase their production. While concerning population carrying capacity and food consumption, food security level in each economy varies greatly, and developed economies are in general more secured than developing economies, except for Japan and Korea. 【Conclusion】Exploring grain production-potential at uttermost is a reasonable way to improve food security, at the same time, it is necessary to control population explosion, especially for those overloaded regions.

Key words: grain productivity, food security assessment, mechanism method, AHP, APEC