中国农业科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (11): 2315-2327.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.11.022

• 农业经济与管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于中国居民平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量研究

 唐华俊, 李哲敏   

  1. 1.中国农业科学院,北京 100081
    2.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-12 出版日期:2012-06-01 发布日期:2012-01-17
  • 通讯作者: 唐华俊,Tel:010-82109395;E-mail:hjtang@mail.caas.net.cn
  • 作者简介:唐华俊,Tel:010-82109395;E-mail:hjtang@mail.caas.net.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”计划)项目(2010CB951500)、国家自然科学基金项目(40930101)、国际科技合作项目(2010DFB10030)

Study on Per Capita Grain Demand Based on Chinese Reasonable Dietary Pattern

 TANG  Hua-Jun, LI  Zhe-Min   

  1. 1.中国农业科学院,北京 100081
    2.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100081
  • Received:2011-05-12 Online:2012-06-01 Published:2012-01-17

摘要: 【目的】中国是发展中的农业大国,人均资源极其稀缺,粮食安全始终是关系到国民经济发展、社会稳定与国家自立的全局性重大战略问题。人均粮食需求量是计算国家粮食需求量、制定保障粮食安全相关政策时的基础性指标。论文首次从居民营养健康的视角出发,分析中国人均粮食需求量的组成部分,测算基于平衡膳食模式下的中国人均粮食需求量,为实现资源的效用最大化、确保中国粮食安全提供新的数据支持,也为相应消费引导政策的制定提供科学依据。【方法】采用膳食平衡分析法计算基于平衡膳食模式下的人均口粮和饲料用粮、加工用粮的需求量;采用趋势预测法计算种子用粮、工业用粮、损耗等人均需求量。在此基础上,应用情景分析法讨论其不同影响程度。【结果】基于平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量不超过400 kg•a-1;其中,低方案为252.64  kg•a-1,中方案为322.07 kg•a-1,高方案为386.60 kg•a-1。近年来,中国实际人均粮食消费量在406.09—378.88 kg•a-1波动,实际值大于基于平衡膳食模式下的人均粮食需求量。【结论】中国人均粮食需求量 322.07 kg•a-1,基本满足中国人均粮食安全的需求量。如果中国粮食人均占有量386.60 kg•a-1,就能够基本确保中国的粮食安全。目前,中国居民由于不合理的食物消费结构模式,造成基于平衡膳食模式下的人均粮食需求量与人均粮食消费量存在差异。为此,国家应该以营养健康为目标调整食物生产结构、加强居民对平衡膳食结构等食物消费认识的宣传普及工作,以及引导居民建立合理的食物消费习惯。

关键词: 粮食安全, 人均粮食需求量, 人均粮食消费量, 营养健康, 平衡膳食模式

Abstract: 【Objective】To analyze the composition of China’s per-capita grain demand, ascertain the per-capita grain consumption on the basis of rational diet patterns to realize the limited resources utility maximization and provide new supporting data for China's food security, and provide a scientific basis for developing appropriate policies to guide the consumer. All of the researches above are based on people’s nutrition and health.【Method】 The demand for per capita rations, grain for fodder and processing in the balanced diet model were calculated by applying the Prandial Balance Analysis Method. The per capita demand for seeds, industry and wastage were calculated by using the Trend Prediction Method, and the Scenarios Analysis Method was adoped to discuss different influence degrees between the two results.【Result】 The per-capita grain demand based on balanced dietary pattern is no more than 400 kg•a-1. The low program is 252.64 kg•a-1 the middle program is 322.07 kg•a-1, and the high program is 386.60 kg•a-1. In recent years, the real per-capita grain consumption in China has been fluctuating between 406.09-378.88 kg•a-1, which is greater than per-capita grain demand in the balanced dietary pattern. 【Conclusion】 If the per-capita grain demand in China reaches 322.07 kg•a-1, it will basically meet the per-capita demand for food security. If per-capita grain consumption reaches 386.60 kg•a-1, it will basically ensure the food security in China. The current residents’ irrational food consumption pattern brings about the differences between the per-capita grain demand based on the balanced dietary patterns and the real per-capita grain consumption. Therefore, the government should adjust the structure of food production, strengthen propaganda and popularization work of food consumption awareness about reasonable diet structure, and guide people to cultivate reasonable food consumption habits with the goal of nutrition and health.

Key words: food security, per-capita grain demand, per-capita grain consumption, nutrition and health, the balanced dietary pattern