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Journal of Integrative Agriculture  2023, Vol. 22 Issue (6): 1797-1808    DOI: 10.1016/j.jia.2023.02.021
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Model fitting of the seasonal population dynamics of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, in the field

XU Lei1, ZHAO Tong-hua1, Xing Xing2, XU Guo-qing1#, XU Biao2, ZHAO Ji-qiu1

1 Institute of Plant Protection, Liaoning Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Shenyang 110161, P.R.China

2 Agricultural Technology Extension Center of Xiuyan Manchu Autonomous County, Anshan 114300, P.R.China

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The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integrated pest management (IPM).  Based on systematically investigating soybean aphid populations in the field from 2018 to 2020, this study adopted the inverse logistic model for the first time, and combined it with the classical logistic model to describe the changes in seasonal population abundance from colonization to extinction in the field.  Then, the increasing and decreasing phases of the population fluctuation were divided by calculating the inflection points of the models, which exhibited distinct seasonal trends of the soybean aphid populations in each year.  In addition, multifactor logistic models were then established for the first time, in which the abundance of soybean aphids in the field changed with time and relevant environmental conditions.  This model enabled the prediction of instantaneous aphid abundance at a given time based on relevant meteorological data.  Taken as a whole, the successful approaches implemented in this study could be used to build a theoretical framework for practical IPM strategies for controlling soybean aphids.

Keywords:  soybean aphid        population dynamics        logistic model        inverse logistic model        multifactor logistic model  
Received: 12 July 2022   Online: 17 February 2023   Accepted: 21 November 2022

This study was supported by the Chinese National Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest (201003025 and 201103022), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFD0201004) and the Discipline Construction Project of Liaoning Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China (2019DD082612).

About author:  XU Lei, E-mail:; #Correspondence XU Guo-qing, Tel: +86-24-31021234, Fax: +86-24-88419895, E-mail:

Cite this article: 

XU Lei, ZHAO Tong-hua, Xing Xing, XU Guo-qing, XU Biao, ZHAO Ji-qiu. 2023.

Model fitting of the seasonal population dynamics of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura, in the field . Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 22(6): 1797-1808.

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