|
|
|
|
|
| Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption |
| DONG Wan-lu, WANG Xiao-bing, YANG Jun |
1、Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.China
2、University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R.China
3、School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, P.R.China |
|
|
|
摘要 China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model-China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China’s per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.
Abstract China has experienced dramatic changes in food consumption patterns over the last three decades. However, there are different opinions regarding the future trends in consumption. By adopting the well-developed partial equilibrium model-China Agricultural Policy Simulation Model (CAPSiM), the demand for livestock products and the main feed crops over 2011–2030 is predicted and analyzed. It is found that China’s per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise during this period, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges for feed supply in China. More accurately, China will be confronted with feed security rather than grain security in the future.
|
|
Received: 07 July 2014
Accepted:
|
| Fund: The funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71373255), the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2012RC102) and the National Maize Industrial Technical System, China (nycytx-02). |
|
Corresponding Authors:
WANG Xiao-bing, E-mail: xbwang.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
E-mail: xbwang.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
|
Cite this article:
DONG Wan-lu, WANG Xiao-bing, YANG Jun.
2015.
Future perspective of China’s feed demand and supply during its fast transition period of food consumption. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 14(6): 1092-1100.
|
| Chen G J. 2012. Changes in supply and demand of Chinese feed grain and its effects on future grain self-sufficiency. Chinese Journal of Animal Science, 48, 23–26. (in Chinese)Chen Y F, Yang L. 2013. China’s Grain Supply and DemandForecasts. Report of the Conference “China’s Food SecurityStrategy and Policy Research Towards High-IncomeCountries”. Development Research Center of the StateCouncil, China. (in Chinese)Cheng G Q, Zhou Y H. 1997. Estimates of supply and demandof China feed. Problems of Agricultural Economy, 18, 25–29.(in Chinese)Cui X L. 2012. Substantial growth in Chinese imports of corn willnot repeat the mistakes of soybeans fall. China’s ForeignTrade, 4, 64–65. (in Chinese)Delgado C L. 2003. Rising consumption of meat and milk indeveloping countries has created a new food revolution.The Journal of Nutrition, 133, 3907S-3910SFuller F, Hayes D, Smith D. 2000. Reconciling Chinese meatproduction and consumption data. Economic Developmentand Cultural Change, 49, 23-43Fuller F, Huang J, Ma H, Rozelle S. 2006. Got milk? The rapidrise of China’s dairy sector and its future prospects. FoodPolicy, 31, 201-215Fuller F, Tuan F, Wailes E. 2002. Rising demand for meat: Whowill feed china’s hogs? In: Gale F, Tuan F, Lohmar B, HsuH H, Gilmour B, eds., China’s Food and Agricultural: Issuesfor the 21st Century. pp. 17-19Gale F, Huang K S. 2007. Demand for Food Quantity andQuality in China. Ecomomic Research Service, UnitedStates Department of Agriculture.Han J. 2014. China: Food Security and Agricultural Going OutStrategy Research. China Development Press, Beijing,China. (in Chinese)Hartwell R M. 1961. The rising standard of living in England,1800-1850 The Economic History Review, 13, 397-416Huang J K. 2004. Past and future of Chinese agriculture.Management World, 3, 95–104. (in Chinese)Huang J K, Rozelle S. 1998. Market development and fooddemand in rural China. China Economic Review, 9, 25-45Huang J K, Yang J, Qiu H G. 2012. Thoughts on national foodsecurity strategies and policies in the new era. Issues inAgricultural Economy, 3, 4-8 (in Chinese)Jiang N H. 2002. Theories and methods of national andprovincial meat products statistics adjustment. Journal ofAgrotechnical Economics, 6, 12–20. (in Chinese)Jiang N H, Xin X, Yin J. 2002. Analysis on factors affectingChinese urban and rural livestock consumption. ChineseRural Economy, 12, 48–54. (in Chinese)Jin S, Huang J, Hu R, Rozelle S. 2002. The creation andspread of technology and total factor productivity in China’sagriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,84, 916-930Ma H Y, Hu Q L, Li W, Allen R, Guo S M, Tang H C, Ren XJ. 2011. Hog production in China: Technological bias and factor demand. Agricultural Sciences in China, 10, 468-479Ma H Y, Huang J K, Rozelle S. 2004. Reassessing China’slivestock statistics: An analysis of discrepancies and thecreation of new data series. Economic Development andCultural Change, 52, 445-473NBSC (National Bureau of Statistics of China). 1981-2013 China Statistical Yearbook. China Statistics Press, Beijing,China. (in Chinese)Pingali P L. 2001. Environmental consequences of agriculturalcommercialization in Asia. Environment and DevelopmentEconomics, 6, 483-502Rae A N, Hertel T W. 2000. Future developments in globallivestock and grains markets: The impacts of livestockproductivity convergence in Asia-Pacific. Australian Journalof Agricultural and Resource Economics, 44, 393-422.Wang X B, Huang J K, Zhang L X, Rozelle S. 2011. The riseof migration and the fall of self employment in rural China’slabor market. China Economic Review, 22, 573-584Xu X, Zhang W Q. 2004. Consideration on mechanizationcondition of forage grass production and its developmentopportunities in China. Chinese Agriculture Mechanization,3, 14-16. (in Chinese)Yang J, Cheng S, Yang B Q, Wang X B. 2013. Changing offood consumption structure in Japan and Korea and theirimplication for China’s future food demand. China SoftScience, 265, 24-31. (in Chinese)Yang J, Huang J K, Li N H, Rozelle S, Martin W. 2011. Theimpact of the Doha trade proposals on farmers’ incomes inChina. Journal of Policy Modeling, 33, 439-452.Yen S T, Fang C, Su S J. 2004. Household food demand inurban China: A censored system approach. Journal ofComparative Economics, 32, 564-585Yu X, Abler D. 2009. The demand for food quality in rural China.American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91, 57-69Yu X, Sun M. 2012. A study of the impact of the aging ofpopulation in China on consumption. Jilin University Journal(Social Sciences Edition), 52, 141-160 (in Chinese)Zhao Q G, Zhou S L, Wu S H, Ren K. 2006. Cultivated landresources and strategies for its sustainable utilization andpritection in China. Acta Pedologica Sinica, 43, 662–672.(in Chinese)Zhong F N. 1997. Bias on meat production statistical dataand their causes. Chinese Rural Economy, 10, 63–66. (inChinese)Zhong F N, Xiang J. 2012. Impacts of demographic dynamicsand professional structure on food demand. Issues inAgricultural Economy, 9, 12–16. (in Chinese)Zhou Z Y, Tian W M, Malcolm B. 2008. Supply and demandestimates for feed grains in China. Agricultural Economics,39, 111–122. |
| No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
| |
Shared |
|
|
|
|
| |
Discussed |
|
|
|
|
