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| Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network |
| LI Zhe-min, CUI Li-guo, XU Shi-wei, WENG Ling-yun, DONG Xiao-xia, LI Gan-qiong , YU Hai-peng |
| Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, P.R.China |
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摘要 This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China. In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network, the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension, and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error. Finally, this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA. The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs. The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.
Abstract This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China. In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network, the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension, and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error. Finally, this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA. The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs. The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.
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Received: 29 January 2013
Accepted:
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| Fund: This research was financially supported by the National KeyTechnology R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAH20B04), the 948 Program of Ministry of Agriculture, China (2013-Z1). |
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Corresponding Authors:
XU Shi-wei, Tel: +86-10-82109902, E-mail: xushiwei@caas.cn
E-mail: xushiwei@caas.cn
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| About author: LI Zhe-min, Tel: +86-10-82105203, E-mail: lizhemin@caas.cn |
Cite this article:
LI Zhe-min, CUI Li-guo, XU Shi-wei, WENG Ling-yun, DONG Xiao-xia, LI Gan-qiong , YU Hai-peng.
2013.
Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(12): 2292-2299.
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