多层非线性混合效应模型评价番鸭体重生长

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.03.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】寻找定量描述本地番鸭体重的生长模型。【方法】利用Richards生长函数，设计番鸭体重的4种生长模型，包括考虑个体、性别的二层非线性混合效应模型（ModelⅠ），考虑个体、性别、资料自相关性的二层非线性混合效应模型（Model Ⅱ），考虑个体的单层非线性混合效应模型（Model Ⅲ），忽略个体和性别的零层非线性固定效应模型（Model Ⅳ），描述了番鸭个体和群体生长特征。比较了番鸭体重生长4种模型的信息准则、误差方差、不同体重测定点日龄的平均测定值和模型拟合值、模型和生长参数估计值。【结果】 Model Ⅱ的拟合效果整体最好，估计了公、母的初生体重及成熟体重和生长速度最大的日龄、体重、绝对生长率，分别是40 g、3 504 g及43 d、1 523 g、65 g•d-1和40 g、2 209 g及36 d、977 g、45 g•d-1。【结论】考虑个体、性别、资料自相关性的Richards二层非线性混合效应模型是评价本地全群及公、母番鸭体重生长的最优模型。

关键词: 多层非线性混合效应模型, 体重, 番鸭, 评价

Abstract: 【Objective】 Research on quantificationally describing the model of body weight growth of native Muscovy ducks was carried out. 【Method】 Four body weight growth models were designed using Richards growth function, including 2-level nonlinear mixed effect model considering individual and gender (ModelⅠ), 2-level nonlinear mixed effect model considering individual and gender with autoregressive correlation structure (Model Ⅱ), 1-level nonlinear mixed effect model considering individual (Model Ⅲ), and 0-level nonlinear fixed effect model ignoring individual and gender (Model Ⅳ), to describe the growth characters of individual and population of Muscovy ducks. Information criteria，error variance, average measured and fitted values at different ages, and estimates obtained by fitting the models and growth parameters were compared. 【Result】 The results showed that Model Ⅱ had the best effect overall fit. It was estimated by the model that the birth weight, the mature weight, and the inflexion point age, the body weight and the absolute growth rate at maximum growth rate of male and female native Muscovy ducks were 40 g, 3 504 g, 43 d, 1 523 g, and 65 g•d-1, and 40 g, 2 209 g, 36 d, 977 g, and 45 g•d-1, respectively. 【Conclusion】 Multilevel Richards nonlinear mixed effect model considering individual and gender with autoregressive correlation structure was the best growth model for fitting the body growth of male or female native Muscovy ducks.

Key words: multilevel nonlinear mixed effect model, body growth, Muscovy ducks, evaluation

张元跃, 贺喜. 多层非线性混合效应模型评价番鸭体重生长[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(3): 540-547.

ZHANG Yuan-Yue, HE Xi. Multilevel Nonlinear Mixed Effect Model for Evaluation of Muscovy Ducks Body Weight for Growth[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(3): 540-547.

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