中国农业巨灾风险评估方法研究

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.09.023

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】研究中国农业巨灾风险评估的方法。【方法】利用农作物受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积获得中国农业灾害损失数据，同时运用蒙特卡罗模拟技术以解决样本数据不足的难题；运用极值POT模型实现对农业灾害损失尾部分布的有效拟合，建立农业巨灾损失的广义Pareto分布模型；建立基于VaR方法的农业巨灾风险的精确度量模型；选择河南省粮食生产的旱灾巨灾风险作为中国农业巨灾风险评估的案例。【结果】构建了中国农业巨灾风险评估的基本框架；旱灾巨灾对河南省粮食生产的影响总体上相对有限，其损失的平均值在10%左右，但在面临50年一遇甚至是百年一遇的旱灾巨灾时，粮食损失率将分别高达22.60%和25.24%，须引起决策层的高度重视。【结论】本研究所提出的中国农业巨灾风险评估方法是切实可行的。

关键词: 农业巨灾 , 农业灾情数据 , 蒙特卡罗模拟 , POT模型 , VaR , 风险评估

Abstract: 【Objective】 The purpose of this paper is to provide an evaluation method for agricultural catastrophic risk.【Method】 Data on agricultural disaster loss were collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard process, and Monte Carlo simulation was used to expand sample size. Peak over threshold (POT) approach based on the extreme value theory was used to model the distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, and value at risk (VaR) was used to assess agricultural catastrophic risk. The paper cited drought catastrophe in Henan province of China as an example and assessed grain-production risk using the method proposed.【Result】The basic framework for assessment of agricultural catastrophic risk in China has been constructed. Drought catastrophe slightly affects grain-production in Henan province of China generally, and the mean loss of drought catastrophic is about 10%; however, the drought catastrophic risk is severe in the scenario of 50 years or 100 years for a return, and the grain loss caused by drought catastrophe will exceed 20%. More attention for policy designer must be taken into account.【Conclusion】The evaluation method of agricultural catastrophic risk is found to be appropriate and feasible.

Key words: agricultural catastrophe , agricultural loss data , Monte Carlo simulation , POT , VaR , risk assessment

徐磊，张峭. 中国农业巨灾风险评估方法研究[J]. 中国农业科学, 2011, 44(9): 1945-1952.

XU Lei, ZHANG Qiao. Assessment Approach for Agricultural Catastrophic Risk in China[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2011, 44(9): 1945-1952.

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