Potato cyst nematodes (PCNs) are a significant threat to potato production, having caused substantial damage in many countries. Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosecurity strategies, especially given the impact of climate change on pest species invasion and distribution. Machine learning (ML), specifically ensemble models, has emerged as a powerful tool in predicting species distributions due to its ability to learn and make predictions based on complex data sets. Thus, this research utilised advanced machine learning techniques to predict the distribution of PCN species under climate change conditions, providing the initial element for invasion risk assessment. We first used Global Climate Models to generate homogeneous climate predictors to mitigate the variation among predictors. Then, five machine learning models were employed to build two groups of ensembles, single-algorithm ensembles (ESA) and multi-algorithm ensembles (EMA), and compared their performances. In this research, the EMA did not always perform better than the ESA, and the ESA of Artificial Neural Network gave the highest performance while being cost-effective. Prediction results indicated that the distribution range of PCNs would shift northward with a decrease in tropical zones and an increase in northern latitudes. However, the total area of suitable regions will not change significantly, occupying 16–20% of the total land surface (18% under current conditions). This research alerts policymakers and practitioners to the risk of PCNs’ incursion into new regions. Additionally, this ML process offers the capability to track changes in the distribution of various species and provides scientifically grounded evidence for formulating long-term biosecurity plans for their control.
The circulating avian influenza viruses in wild birds have a high possibility of spillover into domestic birds or mammals at the wild bird-domestic bird or bird-mammal interface. H8N4 viruses primarily circulate in migratory wild waterfowl and have rarely been identified in domestic birds. In this study, we summarized the spatial and temporal distribution of global H8 viruses, specified their natural reservoirs, and performed detailed evolutionary analysis on the dominant H8N4 viruses. Here, we also reported a novel H8N4 virus isolated from a Eurasian coot sample from a wetland in eastern China in 2022. Animal infection studies indicated that the wild bird-originated H8N4 virus can replicate and transmit efficiently in ducks but has not adapted to chickens. Additionally, this naturally isolated H8N4 virus can replicate in mice without prior adaptation. These results indicate that H8 viruses exist mainly in the wild duck reservoir and pose a high infection risk to domestic ducks. Therefore, the active surveillance of influenza viruses at the wild and domestic waterfowl interface will contribute to monitoring the circulation of these viruses.