关键词: 生态足迹, 生态承载力, 生态赤字, 可持续发展

Abstract: The ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Shaanxi Province during 1978 to 2002 was studied, and the forecast model was obtained which shows how the two vary with the time, and the tend of future sustainable development of Shaanxi was forecasted. The results showed that the average personal ecological footprint gradually increased from 0.5508 ha to 1.1059 ha during 1978 to 2002 , whereas, the average personal ecological capacity declined year by year from 0.917 ha to 0.8102 ha. A conclusion could be drawn that the ecological footprint and ecological capacity development just in the opposite direction. In 1978 the ecological surplus was 0.4009 ha, and in 1992 ecological deficit arose, which rose to 0.2958 ha by 2002. The forecast showed that the average ecological footprint would be 1.2013 ha in 2010 and 1.528 ha in 2015, and that the average personal ecological capacity would be 0.7638 ha in 2010 and 0.7198 ha in 2015, and that the average personal ecological deficit would reach to 0.4378 ha in 2010 and 0.5330 ha in 2015. The research indicates that the utilization of natural resource in Shaanxi is increasing year by year, which is beyond the capacity of the natural ecological system, the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are going up, the present developing model is not sustainable, the ecological environment is at risk.

Key words: Ecological footprint, Ecological capacity, Ecological deficit, Sustainable development