关键词: 农业农村现代化, 农业现代化, 农村现代化, 全球规律, 中国特色

Abstract:

【Objective】Agricultural and rural modernization needs to be grounded in both general global patterns and unique Chinese characteristics. From a global perspective, investigating its evolutionary trends and influencing factors is of great significance for advancing China's comprehensive rural revitalization. 【Method】This study constructed an evaluation index system incorporating two dimensions: agricultural modernization and rural modernization. Based on the measurement of agricultural and rural development levels in 152 countries from 2000 to 2022, three-dimensional kernel density estimation and spatial Gini coefficient were employed to reveal the evolutionary trends of global agricultural and rural modernization. Furthermore, the optimal-parameter geographical detector was utilized to identify the intensity and interaction effects of socio-economic and agricultural factors. 【Result】Over the past two decades, global agricultural and rural modernization level has shown a steady upward trend. The gap between low-income and middle-income countries has been narrowing annually, yet a substantial gap with high-income countries persists. China has made remarkable progress in its agricultural and rural modernization, with its international ranking climbing from 78th to 57th. Regarding general patterns, economic development level remained a key driver. The roles of industrial structure and agricultural trade openness have become increasingly prominent. The contribution of agricultural technological progress remained important but exhibited a diminishing marginal trend, while the impact of agricultural land use structure was characterized by long-term complexity. In terms of differentiated patterns, informatization level was the primary driver for low- and lower-middle-income countries to achieve catch-up, whereas its influence diminished in upper-middle- and high-income countries. Population aging has become the dominant constraint hindering agricultural and rural modernization in middle-income countries, with a relatively minor impact on high-income countries. Environmental protection intensity showed significant differentiated effects across different income groups. The proportion of negative interaction effects between factors in low-income country groups has significantly decreased. Interaction effects among factors in lower-middle-income country groups have entirely transitioned to positive synergistic effects. Synergistic enhancement effects were prevalent among factors in upper-middle-income and high-income country groups. This indicated that the spatial-temporal differentiation of global agricultural and rural modernization was a result of the combined influence of socio-economic and agricultural factors. 【Conclusion】In advancing comprehensive rural revitalization, China should adhere to a "dual-driven" approach of concurrently promoting agricultural modernization and rural modernization. It was crucial to coordinate the relationships among economic development, social progress, and environmental protection to ultimately achieve integrated urban-rural development.

Key words: agricultural and rural modernization development, agricultural modernization, rural modernization, global patterns, Chinese characteristics