基于产业要素年代差距分析的农业现代化水平国际比较研究

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2018.07.018

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】农业现代化是中国“四化同步”的重要组成，分析中国与发达国家农业现代化发展的相对差距，界定中国农业发展的全球定位。【方法】FAO在相关研究中提出：农业现代化发展是一个渐进的规律性过程，该过程伴随着一系列基本特征的趋势性变化。承认农业现代化发展内在的规律性是进行农业现代化水平国际比较的前提条件。在此基础上，论文提出如下两个核心假设作为使用年代差距进行农业现代化发展水平国际比较探究的基础：①不同国家农业现代化发展具有共性特征，不同国家的农业现代化发展会经历相同的历史阶段，在不同阶段表现出大致相同的特征。②核心指标在农业现代化某阶段的单位变化率相同，即不同国家的相关指标在相同发展阶段面临相同的变化率。据此提出计算不同指标序列年代差距的核心计算公式：Dj=Ya-Wjb±（Xa-Xjb）/Xjb。论文在充分借鉴国内外学者相关研究的基础上，建立了包含农业经济效益、经济结构转型、农村经济社会发展、农业可持续发展4个一级指标和10个二级指标组成的综合评价体系。选定美国、英国、日本、印度、巴西、南非六国作为国际比较的典型国家。其中美、英、日三国农业现代化起步早，在农业现代化发展过程中表现出的历史特征，可以作为中国农业现代化发展的长期对照，中国、印度、巴西、南非同为高速变革的发展中国家，面临众多相同的机遇和挑战，宏微观政策各有得失，经验教训更为深刻，将巴西、印度、南非作为典型国家作对比具有参照意义。【结果】测算表明，中国农业现代化发展总体水平大体相当于美、英等国20世纪60年代末到80年代初水平，同日本20世纪90年代初期水平相当，与印度、巴西等国基本处于相同的发展阶段。从分项指标看，中国的农业现代化存在自身发展不均衡问题，各核心指标分化较为严重，耦合性不高，这种不均衡限制了农业现代化总体水平进一步提高。【结论】基于年代差距法的农业现代化水平国际比较方法具有操作简单，易理解，结果直观的特点，可作为分析农业现代化问题，评估农业现代化发展水平的有效工具。

关键词: 农业现代化, 发展水平, 年代差距法, 国际比较

Abstract: 【Objective】Agriculture modernization is an important part of achieving the ‘four Modernization Synchronization’ development in China. Gap analysis on agricultural modernization development between China and developed countries is helpful to figure out the global positioning of Chinese agricultural modernization. 【Method】 The related references sourced from FAO promoted that agricultural modernization development was a gradual principle process, which was companied with a trend of serious of basic character change. The acknowledgement of the inner principle of agricultural modernization development was the necessary precondition among international comparison. On that base, the paper promoted two core hypothesis, which contained that agricultural modernization development had the common trait, similar historical steps with corresponding characters among different countries; core index of changing rate were same in the steps of agricultural modernization according to different countries, were the base of generation gap to study the comparison of international agricultural modernization development. Therefore, the formulation of generation gap among different index was as follows: D_j=Y_a-W_jb±（X_a-X_jb）/X_jbBased on the related references at home and aboard, a comprehensive index system was built to compare the agricultural modernization development, which was composed of four one-level indexes (Agricultural Economic Benefit, Transformation of Economic Structure, Rural Economic and Social Development and Agricultural sustainable development) and ten second-level indexes. The paper focused on typical countries such as USA, UK, Japan, India, Brazil, South Africa and China to make international comparison, of which, the started early agricultural modernization in the USA, the UK, and Japan could be taken as a long-time comparison in agricultural modernization development due to their historical traits in agricultural modernization development. Meanwhile, Brazil, India and South Africa could be selected as typical countries in comparison, for that the above countries were all belong to developing countries in high speed development, with the many similar opportunities, challenge, policy making and lessons.【Result】The current level of agricultural modernization development in China acted properly as the same level in the end of 1960s to the beginning of 1980s in the USA and the UK, and the beginning of 1990s’ in Japan, which had the similar developing steps in India and Brazil. With respect of sub-index, the unequilibrium agricultural modernization in China was caused by the diversification and low coupling of the core index, which restricted the overall progress of agricultural modernization.【Conclusion】The generation gap analysis was available for evaluate agricultural modernization development, which was easy access to the international comparison and could be used as a tool to analyze agricultural modernization and appraisal agricultural modernization development.

Key words: agricultural modernization, development level, generation gap method, international comparison

胡志全，朱殿霄，辛岭，侯丽薇，王东阳. 基于产业要素年代差距分析的农业现代化水平国际比较研究[J]. 中国农业科学, 2018, 51(7): 1412-1420.

HU ZhiQuan, ZHU DianXiao, XIN Ling, HOU LiWei, WANG DongYang. Comparison Study on the Level of International Agricultural Modernization Based on the Method of Generation Gap of Industry Elements[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2018, 51(7): 1412-1420.

0
/ / 推荐

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

链接本文: https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2018.07.018

https://www.chinaagrisci.com/CN/Y2018/V51/I7/1412

参考文献

[1] 约翰·梅尔. 农业经济发展学. 北京: 农村读物出版社, 1988: 102-110.

MEL J. Agricultural Economic Development. Beijing: Rural Books Publishing House, 1988: 102-110. (in Chinese)

[2] 速水佑次郎, 弗农·拉坦. 农业发展: 国际前景.吴伟东,译. 北京: 商务印书馆, 1993: 58-63.

HAYAMI Y, VERNON N. Agricultural Development: An International Perspective. WU W D, Translate. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 1993: 58-63. (in Chinese)

[3] 徐星明, 杨万江. 我国农业现代化进程评价. 农业现代化研究, 2000(5): 276-282.

XU X M, YANG W J. An evaluation on the progress of agricultural modernization in China. Agricultural Modernization Research, 2000(5): 276-282 . ( in Chinese)

[4] 张炳江. 层次分析法及其应用案例. 北京: 电子工业出版社, 2014: 32-43.

ZHANG B J. Analytic Hierarchy Process and Some Examples of Its Applications. Beijing: Electronic Industry Press, 2014: 32-43. (in Chinese)

[5] 翟虎渠, 曾希柏, 沈贵银, 蒋和平. 现代农业科技园区评价指标体系研究. 农业现代化研究, 2003( 1): 40-44.

ZHAI H Q, ZENG X B, SHEN G Y, JIANG H P. Evaluating criterion system for modern agricultural science Technology Area. Agricultural Modernization Research, 2003(1): 40-44. (in Chinese)

[6] 辛玲, 蒋和平. 我国农业现代化发展水平评价指标体系的构建和测算. 农业现代化研究, 2010(6): 646-650.

XIN L, JIANG H P. Setting up evaluation index system and calculation development level of china agricultural modernization. Agricultural Modernization Research, 2010(6): 646-650. (in Chinese)

[7] 蒋和平, 崔凯. 我国粮食主产区农业现代化指标体系的构建和测算及发展水平评价. 农业现代化研究, 2011(6): 646-650.

JIANG H P, CUI K. Construction and measuring of agricultural modernization evaluation index system on major grain producing areas in China. Agricultural Modernization Research, 2011(6): 646-650. ( in Chinese)

[8] 郭冰阳. 中国农业现代化评价体系的研究[D]. 长沙: 湖南大学, 2006.

GUO B Y. The research on evaluation system of agricultural modernization in China[D]. Changsha: Hunan University, 2006. (in Chinese)

[9] 林英华, 李红. 基于因子分析法的聊城市农业现代化水平评价研究. 中国农学通报, 2012(22): 403-406.

LIN Y H, LI H. Research on the level of agricultural modernization in Liaocheng---Based on factor analysis. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin , 2012(22): 403-406. (in Chinese)

[10] 杨梅. 基于因子分析的我国农业现代化水平评价. 现代商贸工业, 2011(4): 3-4.

YANG M. Evaluation of agricultural modernization level in China based on factor analysis. Modern Business Trade Industry, 2011(4): 3-4. (in Chinese)

[11] 沈琦胡, 资骏. 我国农业现代化评价指标体系的优化模型—基于聚类和因子分析法. 农业经济, 2012(5): 3-5.

SHEN Q H, ZI J. Optimization model of agricultural modernization evaluation index system based on clustering and factor analysis. Agricultural Economy, 2012(5): 3-5. (in Chinese)

[12] 杨万江. 现代农业发展阶段及中国农业发展的国际比较. 中国农村经济, 2001(1): 12-18.

YANG W J. Modern agricultural development stage and international comparison of Chinese agricultural development. Rural economy of China, 2001(1):12-18. (in Chinese)

[13] 吴振兴. 我国农业现代化的国际比较研究. 热带农业科学, 2003(2): 10-20.

WU Z X. The international comparison of Chinese agricultural modernization. Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture, 2003(2): 10-20. (in Chinese)

[14] 何传启. 中国现代化报告2012: 农业现代化研究. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2012: 164-167.

He C Q. Chinese Modernization Report 2012: Agricultural Modernization Research. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2012: 164-167. (in Chinese)

[15] Schultz T W. Transforming Traditional Agricultural. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1964: 200-203.

[16] FAO. The State of Food and Agriculture 2000. Rome: FAO.

[17] 黄庆华. 发达国家农业现代化模式选择对重庆的启示—来自美日法三国的经验比较. 农业经济问题, 2013(4): 11-16.

HUANG Q H. The enlightenment of the choices of agricultural modernization mode in developed countries to Chongqing – the comparison of experience from the United States, Japan and France. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2013(4):11-16. (in Chinese)

[18] 王文峰. 日本、法国、巴西与中国农业现代化发展的比较. 世界农业, 2013(6): 6-11.

WANG W F. Comparison of the development of agricultural modernization in Japan, France, Brazil and China. World Agriculture, 2013(6): 6-11. (in Chinese)

[19] 邓兰燕. 国外二元经济结构转型理论对我国的启示. 农业经济, 2013(2):10-13.

DENG L Y. The inspiration of international dual economic structure transformation theories in China. Agricultural Economy, 2013(2): 10-13. (in Chinese)

[20] 朱晓明. 中国农业现代化评价指标体系的建立与实证研究[D]. 武汉: 华中农业大学, 2013.

ZHU X M. The establishment of evaluation index system and empirical research of the agricultural modernization in China[D]. Wuhan: Huazhong Agricultural University, 2013. (in Chinese)

[21] ANDREOLI M. Farm sustainability evaluation: methodology and practice. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2000(77): 43-52.

[22] QIU H J. Analysis and design of agricultural sustainability indicators system. Agricultural Sciences in China, 2007 (4): 475-486.

[23] GERDESSEN C J. Data envelopment analysis of sustainability indicators of European agricultural systems at regional level. Agricultural Systems, 2013(118): 78-90.

[24] CAUWENBERGH N V. SAFE—A hierarchical framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2007(120): 229-242.

[25] WANG Y C. Evaluation of development of agricultural modernization in central China, A methodological approach to assess and compare the sustainability level of an agricultural plant production systems. IERI Procedia, 2013(4): 417-424.

[26] CHRISTOF W. A new method for assessing the sustainability of land-use systems (II): Evaluating impact indicators. Ecological Economics, 2009(68):1288-1300.

[27] TAKASHI H. A holistic sustainability assessment tool for bioenergy using the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP) sustainability indicators. Biomass and Bioenergy, 2014(66) :70-80 .

[28] Thiviergea M N. Environmental sustainability indicators for cash-crop farms in Quebec, Canada: A participatory approach. Ecological Indicators, 2014(45): 677-686.

[29] 胡守勇. 新型城镇化与农业现代化的内在逻辑. 农民日报, 2014-07-30(3).

HU S Y. The internal logic between new urbanization and agricultural modernization. Farmers’ Daily, 2014-07-30(3). (in Chinese)

[30] 马玉琪. 我国城镇化与农业现代化关系实证分析. 时代经贸, 2012 (5): 3-7.

MA Y Q. An empirical analysis of the relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization in China. Time Economy and Trade, 2012(5): 3-7. (in Chinese)

[31] 程丹, 薛莎莎, 郭丽娟, 李富忠. 城镇化与农业现代化的耦合关系研究. 安徽农业科学, 2013, 41(3): 1359-1361.

Cheng D, XUE S S, GUO L J, LI F Z. Coupling relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization. Journal of Anhui Agriculture Science, 2013, 41(3): 1359-1361. (in Chinese)