Accurately estimating wheat yield potential under climate changes is essential to assess food production capacity. However, studies based on crop modeling and imperfect management experiment data frequently underestimate the wheat yield potential. In this study, we evaluated wheat yield potential based on CERES-wheat model and a well-managed 10-year (2008-2017) field observation in the North China Plain (NCP), and further identified the critical climate and management yield-limiting factors for improving wheat yield potential and closing wheat yield gap. Our results revealed that wheat yield potential averaged 10.8 t ha-1 in the recent decade. The low growing degree days (GDD) in the pre-winter growing season (592) and solar radiation in the whole growth season (3,036 MJ m-2) are the most critical climatic limiting factors of wheat yield potential in the current production system. Nonetheless, wheat yield potential in the NCP is projected to decline during 2040-2059 by 1.8 and 5.1% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, without considering the elevated CO2 concentration. However, the positive influence of CO2 fertilization is sufficient to offset these negative impacts from climatic warming and solar dimming, ultimately leading to an enhancement in wheat yield potential by 7.5 and 9.8% during 2040-2059 compared to the baseline under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We recommend selecting an appropriate planting date (5 October) and planting density (400 plants m-2) that align with light and temperature conditions during the wheat growing season, thereby improving wheat yield potential. Additionally, optimizing the timing and rate of water application (three times, 270 mm) and fertilizer use (based on in-season root zone nitrogen management) is crucial for closing the wheat yield gap. Our study underscores the importance of adopting multiple management practices that account for complex climate–crop–soil interconnections to enhance wheat yield based on a long-term field experiment under the changing climate.