Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60421-9

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2013, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (7): 1267-1278.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60421-9

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

WANG Jin-xia, HUANG Ji-kun , YAN Ting-ting

Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.China

收稿日期:2013-01-29 出版日期:2013-07-01 发布日期:2013-07-04
通讯作者: Correspondence HUANG Ji-kun, Tel: +86-10-64889440, Fax: +86-10-64856533, E-mail: jkhuang.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
The authors acknowledge the financial support of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2012CB955700, 2010CB428406), the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (70925001, 71161140351), the International Development Research Center (107093-001), the Australian Center for International Agriculture (ADP/2010/070), World Bank, and the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (XDA01020304).

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

WANG Jin-xia, HUANG Ji-kun , YAN Ting-ting

Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R.China

Received:2013-01-29 Online:2013-07-01 Published:2013-07-04
Contact: Correspondence HUANG Ji-kun, Tel: +86-10-64889440, Fax: +86-10-64856533, E-mail: jkhuang.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
The authors acknowledge the financial support of Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2012CB955700, 2010CB428406), the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (70925001, 71161140351), the International Development Research Center (107093-001), the Australian Center for International Agriculture (ADP/2010/070), World Bank, and the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (XDA01020304).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model (CWSM) is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops’ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.

关键词: climate change, water supply and demand, agricultural production, impacts

Abstract: The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model (CWSM) is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops’ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications.

WANG Jin-xia, HUANG Ji-kun , YAN Ting-ting. Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2013, 12(7): 1267-1278.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China

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