Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60802-9

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2014, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (7): 1575-1585.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60802-9

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

XIA Tian, WU Wen-bin, ZHOU Qing-bo, YU Qiang-yi, Peter H Verburg, YANG Peng, LU Zhongjun

1、Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, The Netherlands
3、Remote Sensing Technique Center, Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Harbin 150086, P.R.China

收稿日期:2013-09-06 出版日期:2014-07-15 发布日期:2014-07-16
通讯作者: WU Wen-bin, E-mail: wuwenbin@caas.cn
作者简介:wuwenbin@caas.cn
基金资助:
The research is supported and financed by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2010CB951504), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41201089 and 41271112).

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

XIA Tian, WU Wen-bin, ZHOU Qing-bo, YU Qiang-yi, Peter H Verburg, YANG Peng, LU Zhongjun

1、Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, The Netherlands
3、Remote Sensing Technique Center, Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Harbin 150086, P.R.China

Received:2013-09-06 Online:2014-07-15 Published:2014-07-16
Contact: WU Wen-bin, E-mail: wuwenbin@caas.cn
About author:wuwenbin@caas.cn
Supported by:
The research is supported and financed by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2010CB951504), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41201089 and 41271112).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China (NEC) and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. To do so, the CLUE-S (conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent) model was first updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods: 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes. Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010. The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude. This confirmed that climate change, increases in temperature in particular, greatly influenced the shift in the rice planting area. The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1°C isoline migration pattern, but with an obvious time-lag effect. These findings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC.

关键词: spatio-temporal change , rice planting area , climate change , Northeast China

Abstract: Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China (NEC) and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change. This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change. To do so, the CLUE-S (conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent) model was first updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods: 1980-1990, 1990-2000 and 2000-2010. The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes. Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010. The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude. This confirmed that climate change, increases in temperature in particular, greatly influenced the shift in the rice planting area. The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1°C isoline migration pattern, but with an obvious time-lag effect. These findings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC.

Key words: spatio-temporal change , rice planting area , climate change , Northeast China

XIA Tian, WU Wen-bin, ZHOU Qing-bo, YU Qiang-yi, Peter H Verburg, YANG Peng, LU Zhongjun. Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2014, 13(7): 1575-1585.

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Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis

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