Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60435-9

摘要/Abstract

摘要： Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).

关键词: grain yield , climate change , yield risk , China

Abstract: Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).

Key words: grain yield , climate change , yield risk , China

Rainer Holst, Xiaohua Yu , Carola Grün. Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2013, 12(7): 1279-1291.

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