Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60810-8

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2014, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (7): 1509-1519.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60810-8

Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

HU Ya-nan, LIU Ying-jie, TANG Hua-jun, XU Yin-long , PAN Jie

1、Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
3、Public Meteorological Service Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, P.R.China

收稿日期:2013-09-09 出版日期:2014-07-15 发布日期:2014-07-16
通讯作者: XU Yin-long, Tel/Fax: +86-10-82106012, E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn
作者简介:HU Ya-nan, E-mail: huyanan@caas.cn
基金资助:
The study was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951502) and the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2013BAC09B04).

Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

HU Ya-nan, LIU Ying-jie, TANG Hua-jun, XU Yin-long , PAN Jie

1、Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Key Laboratory of Agri-Informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
3、Public Meteorological Service Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, P.R.China

Received:2013-09-09 Online:2014-07-15 Published:2014-07-16
Contact: XU Yin-long, Tel/Fax: +86-10-82106012, E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn
About author:HU Ya-nan, E-mail: huyanan@caas.cn
Supported by:
The study was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951502) and the Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2013BAC09B04).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： With consecutive occurrences of drought disasters in China in recent years, it is important to estimate their potential impacts on regional crop production. In this study, we detect the impacts of drought on wheat and maize yield and their changes at a 0.5°×0.5° grid scale in the wheat-maize rotation planting area in the North China Plain under the A1B climate change scenario using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model and the outputs of the regional climate modeling system - Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). Self-calibrating palmer drought severity index was used as drought recognition indicator. Two time slices used for the study were the baseline (1961-1990) and 40 years of 2011-2050. The results indicate that the potential planting region for double crop system of wheat-maize would expend northward. The statistic conclusions of crop simulations varied considerably between wheat and maize. In disaster-affected seasons, wheat yield would increase in the future compared with baseline yields, whereas in opposite for maize yield. Potential crop yield reductions caused by drought would be lower for wheat and higher for maize, with a similar trend found for the ratio of potential crop yield reductions for both crops. It appears that the negative impact of drought on maize was larger than that on wheat under climate change A1B scenario.

关键词: drought , yield , DSSAT , A1B scenario , climate change

Abstract: With consecutive occurrences of drought disasters in China in recent years, it is important to estimate their potential impacts on regional crop production. In this study, we detect the impacts of drought on wheat and maize yield and their changes at a 0.5°×0.5° grid scale in the wheat-maize rotation planting area in the North China Plain under the A1B climate change scenario using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model and the outputs of the regional climate modeling system - Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). Self-calibrating palmer drought severity index was used as drought recognition indicator. Two time slices used for the study were the baseline (1961-1990) and 40 years of 2011-2050. The results indicate that the potential planting region for double crop system of wheat-maize would expend northward. The statistic conclusions of crop simulations varied considerably between wheat and maize. In disaster-affected seasons, wheat yield would increase in the future compared with baseline yields, whereas in opposite for maize yield. Potential crop yield reductions caused by drought would be lower for wheat and higher for maize, with a similar trend found for the ratio of potential crop yield reductions for both crops. It appears that the negative impact of drought on maize was larger than that on wheat under climate change A1B scenario.

Key words: drought , yield , DSSAT , A1B scenario , climate change

HU Ya-nan, LIU Ying-jie, TANG Hua-jun, XU Yin-long , PAN Jie. Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2014, 13(7): 1509-1519.

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Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain

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