Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60816-9

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2014, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (7): 1555-1564.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60816-9

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data

CHEN Chao, ZHOU Guang-sheng , ZHOU Li

1、Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, P.R.China

收稿日期:2013-10-12 出版日期:2014-07-15 发布日期:2014-07-16
通讯作者: ZHOU Guang-sheng, Tel: +86-10-68409148, E-mail: gszhou@cams. cma.gov.cn
作者简介:CHEN Chao, Mobile: 13666152298, E-mail: chenchao16306@sina.com
基金资助:
This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951303), the Special Fund for Agro-Scientific Research in the Public Interest (200903003) and the Basic Operation Cost of China Meteorological Administration (CMA).

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data

1、Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, P.R.China

1、Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
2、Sichuan Provincial Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, P.R.China

Received:2013-10-12 Online:2014-07-15 Published:2014-07-16
Contact: ZHOU Guang-sheng, Tel: +86-10-68409148, E-mail: gszhou@cams. cma.gov.cn
About author:CHEN Chao, Mobile: 13666152298, E-mail: chenchao16306@sina.com
Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951303), the Special Fund for Agro-Scientific Research in the Public Interest (200903003) and the Basic Operation Cost of China Meteorological Administration (CMA).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： The impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 were studied in this paper, based on the provincial data, in order to develop scientific countermeasures. The results indicated that increase of average temperature improved single cropping rice production on national level by up to 11% relative to the average over the study period, however, it resulted in an overall loss of double cropping rice by up to 1.9%. The decrease of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the major producing regions caused the decrease by up to 3.0% for single cropping rice production and 2.0% for double cropping rice production. Moreover, the contribution of precipitation change reached about 6.2% for single cropping rice production, but no significant effect for double cropping rice production in recent 50 years.

关键词: impact , climate change , warming , precipitation , rice yield , provincial level , China

Abstract: The impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 were studied in this paper, based on the provincial data, in order to develop scientific countermeasures. The results indicated that increase of average temperature improved single cropping rice production on national level by up to 11% relative to the average over the study period, however, it resulted in an overall loss of double cropping rice by up to 1.9%. The decrease of diurnal temperature range (DTR) in the major producing regions caused the decrease by up to 3.0% for single cropping rice production and 2.0% for double cropping rice production. Moreover, the contribution of precipitation change reached about 6.2% for single cropping rice production, but no significant effect for double cropping rice production in recent 50 years.

Key words: impact , climate change , warming , precipitation , rice yield , provincial level , China

CHEN Chao, ZHOU Guang-sheng , ZHOU Li. Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2014, 13(7): 1555-1564.

参考文献

Chmielewski F M, Potts J M.1995. The relationship betweencrop yields from an experiment in southern Englandand long-term climate variations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 73, 43-66

Dhakhwa G B, Campbell C L. 1998. Potential effects ofdifferential day-night warming in global climate changeon crop production. Climate Change, 40, 647-667

Ding Y H, Ren G Y, Shi G Y, Gong P, Zheng X H, Zhai PM, Zhang D D, Zhao Z C, Wang S W, Wang H J, Luo Y,Chen D L, Gao X J, Dai X S. 2006. National assessmentreport of climatic change (I): Climatic change in China andits future trend. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2,3-8 (in Chinese)

Ding Y H, Ren G Y, Zhao Z C, Xu Ying, Luo Y, Li Q P, ZhangJ. 2007. Detection, causes and projection of climatic changeover China: An overview of recent progress. Advancesin Atmospheric Sciences, 24, 954-971

Dixon P B, Rimme M T. 2002. Dynamic General EquilibriumModelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guideand Documentation of Monash. Contributions to EconomicAnalysis 256. North-Holland Publishing Company,Amsterdam.

The Committee of National Assessment Report on ClimateChange. 2007. China’s National Assessment Report onClimatic Change. Science Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical ScienceBasis. Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, ChenZ, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M, Miller H L, AlleyR, Berntsen T, Bindoff N L, Chidthaisong A, Gregory J,Hegerl G, Heimann M, Hewitson B, Hoskins B, Joos F,Jouzel J, Kattsov V (eds.)). Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,996 pp.

Leopold A C, Kriedemann P E. 1975. Plant Growth andDevelopment. McGraw-Hill Book, New York. p. 545.

Liu B H, Xu M, Henderson M, Qi Y, Li Y Q. 2004. TakingChina’s temperature: Daily range, warming trends, andregional variations, 1955-2000 Journal of Climate, 17,4453-4462

Liu L L, Wang E L, Zhu Y, Tang L 2012. Contrasting effects ofwarming and autonomous breeding on single-rice productivityin China. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 149,20-29

Liu Y, Wang E L, Yang X G, Wang J. 2010. Contributions ofclimatic and crop varietal changes to crop production inthe North China Plain, since 1980. Global Change Biology,16, 2287-2299

Lobell D B, Burke M B, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea M D, FalconW P, Naylor R L. 2008. Prioritizing climatic changeadaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319,607-610

Lobell D B, Ortiz-Monasterio J V. 2007. Impacts of day versusnight temperature on spring wheat yields: A comparison ofempirical and CERES model prediction in three locations.Agronomy Journal, 99, 469-477

Lobell D B. 2007. Changes in diurnal temperaturerange and national cereal yields. Agricultural andForest Meteorology, 145, 229-238

Matsui T, Horie T. 1992. Effect of elevated CO2 and hightemperature on growth and yield of rice. II. Sensitivityperiod and pollen germination rate in high temperaturesterility of rice spikelets at flowering. Japanese Journalof Crop Science, 61, 148-149 (in Japanese)

Nicholls N. 1997. Increased Australian wheat yield due torecent climate trends. Nature, 387, 484-485

Parry M L, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G.2004. Effects of climatic change on global food productionunder SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios.Global Environment Change, 14, 53-67

Peng S B, Huang J L, Sheehy J E, Laza R C, Visperas R M,Zhong X H, Centeno G S, Khush G S, Cassman K G. 2004.Rice yields decline with higher night temperature fromglobal warming. Proceedings of the National Academy ofSciences of the United States of America, 101, 9971-9975

Qin D H, Ding Y H, Su J l, Ren J W, Wang S W, Wu R S, YangX Q, Wang S M, Liu S Y, Dong G R, Lu Q, Huang Z G, DuB, Luo Y. 2005. Assessment of climate and environmentchanges in China. I: Climate and environment changes inChina and their projections. Advances in Climate ChangeResearch, 1, 1-5 (in Chinese)

Ryan M. 1991. Effects of climate change on plant respiration.Ecological Applications, 1, 157-167

Schlenker W, Roberts M J. 2009. Nonlinear temperature effectsindicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climaticchange. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesof the United States of America, 106, 15594-15598

Schmidhuber J, Tubiello F N. 2007. Global food security underclimatic change. Proceedings of the National Academyof Sciences of the United States of America, 104, 19703-19708

Sheehy J E, Mitchell P L, Ferrer A B. 2006. Decline in ricegrain yields with temperature: Models and correlationscan give different estimates. Field Crops Research, 98,151-156

Tao F L, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z, Sakamoto T. 2008a. Globalwarming, rice production and water use in China:Developing a probabilistic assessment. Agricultural andForest Meteorology, 148, 94-110

Tao F L, Yokozawa M. 2005. Risk analyses of rice yield toseasonal climate variability in China. Japanese Journal ofAgricultural Meteorology, 60, 885-887

Tao F, Yokozawa M, Hayashi Y, Lin E. 2003. Changes inagricultural water demands and soil moisture in Chinaover the last half-century and their effects on agriculturalproduction. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 118,251-261

Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Liu J Y, Zhang Z. 2008b. Climatecropyield relationships at provincial scales in China andthe impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Research,38, 83-94

Tao F L, Yokozawa M, Xu Y L, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z. 2006.Climatic changes and trends in phenology and yieldsof field crops in China, 1981-2000 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 138, 82-92.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China.2009. Agricultural Statistics of New China in Sixty Years.China Agricultural Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)

Wei F Y. 2007. Statistic Diagnose and ForeshadowTechnology in Present Climate. Meteorological Press,Beijing. (in Chinese)

Yang W, Peng S B, Laza R C, Visperas R M, Dionisio-SeseM L. 2008. Yield gap analysis between dry and wetseason rice crop growth under high-yielding managementconditions. Agronomy Journal, 100, 1390-1395

Zhang F C. 1987. Chinese Agricultural Phenology Atlas.Science Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)

Zhang T Y, Huang Y. 2012. Impacts of climatic change andinter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980to 2008. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture,92, 1643-1652

Zhang T Y, Zhu J, Wassmann R. 2010. Responses of rice yieldsto recent climatic change in China: An empirical assessmentbased on long-term observations at different spatial scales(1981-2005) Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150,1128-1137.

[1]	WANG Na, Joost Wolf, ZHANG Fu-suo. Towards sustainable intensification of apple production in China—Yield gaps and nutrient use efficiency in apple farming systems[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2016, 15(4): 716-725.
[2]	SUN Bin-feng, ZHAO Hong, Lü Yi-zhong, LU Fei, WANG Xiao-ke. The effects of nitrogen fertilizer application on methane and nitrous oxide emission/uptake in Chinese croplands[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2016, 15(2): 440-450.
[3]	XU Shi-wei, LI Gan-qiong, LI Zhe-min. China agricultural outlook for 2015–2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES)[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(9): 1889-1902.
[4]	B A Stewart, LIANG Wei-li. Strategies for increasing the capture, storage, and utilization of precipitation in semiarid regions[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(8): 1500-1510.
[5]	Tek B Sapkota, M L Jat, Jeetendra P Aryal, R K Jat, Arun Khatri-Chhetri. Climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and economic profitability of conservation agriculture: Some examples from cereal systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(8): 1524-1533.
[6]	CHEN Zhong-du, ZHANG Hai-lin, S Batsile Dikgwatlhe, XUE Jian-fu, QIU Kang-cheng, TANG Hai-ming, CHEN fu. Soil carbon storage and stratification under different tillage/ residue-management practices in double rice cropping system[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(8): 1551-1560.
[7]	ZHANG Li-wei, Til Feike, Jirko Holst, Christa Hoffmann, Reiner Doluschitz. Comparison of energy consumption and economic performance of organic and conventional soybean production - A case study from Jilin Province, China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(8): 1561-1572.
[8]	MIN Shi, BAI Jun-fei, James Seale Jr., Thomas Wahl. Demographics, societal aging, and meat consumption in China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 995-1007.
[9]	Christine Burggraf, Lena Kuhn, ZHAO Qi-ran, Ramona Teuber, Thomas Glauben. Economic growth and nutrition transition: an empirical analysis comparing demand elasticities for foods in China and Russia[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1008-1022.
[10]	Satoru Shimokawa. Sustainable meat consumption in China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1023-1032.
[11]	XIAO Hong-bo, CHEN Qiong, WANG Ji-min, Les Oxley, MA Heng-yun. The puzzle of the missing meat: Food away from home and China’s meat statistics[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1033-1044.
[12]	David Abler. Economic evaluation of agricultural pollution control options for China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1045-1056.
[13]	TIAN Xu, SUN Fei-fei, ZHOU Ying-heng. Technical efficiency and its determinants in China’s hog production[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1057-1068.
[14]	ZHOU Ying-heng, ZHANG Xiao-heng, TIAN Xu, GENG Xian-hui, ZHANG Peng, YAN Bin-jian. Technical and environmental efficiency of hog production in China -A stochastic frontier production function analysis[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1069-1080.
[15]	CHENG Ya-hao, Zhifeng Gao, James Seale Jr.. Changing structure of China’s meat imports[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2015, 14(6): 1081-1091.

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics