中国农业科学 ›› 2007, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 940-947 .

• 植物保护 • 上一篇    下一篇

梨火疫病菌在中国的潜在分布及入侵风险分析

陈 晨,陈 娟,胡白石,白艺珍,姜英华,刘凤权   

  1. 南京农业大学农业部病虫检测与治理重点开放实验室
  • 收稿日期:2006-05-26 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-05-10 发布日期:2007-05-10
  • 通讯作者: 刘凤权

Potential Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Erwinia amylovora in China

chenchen LIU Fengquan   

  1. 南京农业大学农业部病虫检测与治理重点开放实验室
  • Received:2006-05-26 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-05-10 Published:2007-05-10

摘要: 【目的】细菌性梨火疫病最早发生在北美洲,随着水果贸易等人为因素向世界其它地区传播。对当地的生物多样性和经济带来了极其严重的威胁,亟需对其在中国的适生区进行预测。【方法】苹果开花期的温度和降水量是影响梨火疫病菌适生分布的关键气候因子,本研究根据这一生物学特性及生态环境因子,应用地理信息系统分析得出了梨火疫病在中国两个苹果优势产区的潜在定殖区域。【结果】用该方法对梨火疫病在欧洲的发生情况的预测结果与其历史分布记录相符,使用相同的空间建模方法对梨火疫病在渤海湾和黄土高原两个苹果优势栽培产区的潜在定殖区域进行风险评估,结果表明这两大苹果产区中优先扶持的县大多处于梨火疫病发生的高风险范围。【结论】梨火疫病在中国的大部分地区适生,在有适宜寄主分布的地区,就可能严重发生。

关键词: 生物入侵, 梨火疫病菌, 地理信息系统, 潜在分布区, 风险分析

Abstract: Abstract: Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity and economy, such as the case of fire blight (Erwinia amylovora), a bacteria disease originated in North America, which may be released into new locations by means of fruits trade. On the basis of the knowledge of fire blight’s biophysical characteristics and environmental data, Geographic Information System (GIS) was applied to determine areas where fire blight can potentially invade in China where the pest has not been introduced. Temperature, together with the precipitation during the blossom period was considered to be two critical factors affecting fire blight’s suitable climatic zones. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the Europe, where the occurrence of fire blight has been proven. The model prediction agreed with the occurrence of this bacteria recorded in Europe and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a potential establishment areas in China’s two preferentially apple cultivation regions, Bohai Bay region and Huangtu altiplano region. It has been found out that areas belonging to the high-risk category are almost the main apple producing areas accounting for their great economic importance in China. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. In addition, this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on management practices when alien species are involved.

Key words: biological invasions, fire blight, GIS, potential distribution, risk assessment