柑橘轮斑病的适生区预测及风险分析

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2020.21.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】柑橘轮斑病（citrus target spot）作为一种新发柑橘病害,造成发病果园严重的经济损失。本研究针对该病害进行适生区预测及风险分析,以便对该病采取及时、有效的管控措施,最终达到降低其流行风险等级,防止病害传播扩展的目的。【方法】基于环境变量数据和柑橘轮斑病发生分布数据,运用MaxEnt生态位模型模拟预测柑橘轮斑病菌（Pseudofabraea citricarpa）在中国的潜在适生区分布。并通过ROC（receiver operating characteristic）曲线下面积（area under the curve,AUC）评估预测模型的精度,运用正规化训练增益刀切法（regularized training gain）获取气候因子与分布概率间的关系。同时采用有害生物风险分析理论,以有害生物风险分析的规定程序为依据探索柑橘轮斑病病害的风险分析体系和评价值的计算方法,对评价指标进行定性分析,进而量化评价值。在建立综合评价模型的基础上,计算柑橘轮斑病风险性危害值,最后对病害的风险性危害值进行评价。【结果】柑橘轮斑病菌MaxEnt模型预测结果的平均AUC值为0.998,表明预测结果精度高。柑橘轮斑病菌的潜在适生区面积约占全国面积12.19%,高适生区、中适生区、低适生区各占全国面积约2.85%、3.99%、5.35%。高、中适生区主要集中于长江中上游柑橘优势区及其周边。其中,高适生区主要集中在四川、重庆、陕西南部,以及贵州、湖北等少量地区。中、低适生区是高适生区的外围扩展。通过MaxEnt模型正规化训练增益刀切法获取的环境变量重要性分析结果表明,最冷季度平均温度（Bio11）、最干季度平均温度（Bio9）、最冷月最低温（Bio6）是影响柑橘轮斑病菌分布的3个关键环境因子,这意味着低温、干冷季节柑橘轮斑病发生可能性大。风险分析最终创建出5个准则层、13个指标层的多指标综合评价体系,并对各指标层定量与定性分析,柑橘轮斑病在我国的风险性危害值（R值）为2.08,处于高度风险等级,对长江中上游及湖北西部-湖南西部两大柑橘产区的潜在危害最大。【结论】柑橘轮斑病风险性较高,需要尽快建立监测体系,针对病害采取有效控制措施,阻止病害在长江中上游柑橘优势区及相邻柑橘产区传播。

关键词: 柑橘轮斑病, 柑橘轮斑病菌, 全国适生区等级划分, 多指标综合评价方法, 风险分析

Abstract:

【Objective】Citrus target spot, a new disease reported in China, has caused serious economic losses in the local orchards. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the prediction of the suitable area and risk analysis of the disease, so as to take timely and effective control measures for the disease, and finally achieve the purpose of reducing the risk level and preventing the spread of this disease.【Method】Combined the environmental data and the occurrence and distribution data of the disease areas, MaxEnt ecological niche models were used to predict the potential suitable area of citrus target spot pathogen (Pseudofabraea citricarpa) in China. The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model, and the relationship between the climate factor and the distribution probability was obtained using the regularized training gain method. Additionally, the theory of pest risk analysis was used to explore the risk analysis system and calculation method of citrus target spot based on the prescribed procedures of pest risk analysis. Qualitative analysis of the evaluation indicators was conducted to quantify the evaluation values. Based on establishing a comprehensive evaluation model, the risk hazard value of citrus target spot was calculated, and finally the risk hazard value of the disease was evaluated.【Result】The average AUC value of the predicted result of MaxEnt model was 0.998, which indicated that the predicted result was highly accurate. The area of potential suitable areas for P. citricarpa accounts for 12.19% of the national area. Among them, the areas of high suitability, medium suitability, and low suitability account for about 2.85%, 3.99%, and 5.35% of the national area, respectively. The high and middle suitable areas are mainly concentrated in the citrus dominant area in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Among them, high suitable area is mainly concentrated in Sichuan, Chongqing, southern Shaanxi, and a few areas in Guizhou and Hubei. The middle and low suitable areas are the peripheral expansion of the high suitable area. The analysis results of the importance of environmental variables obtained by the MaxEnt model normalization training gain knife-cut method show that the mean temperature in the coldest quarter (Bio11), the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) are the key factors affecting the distribution of P. citricarpa, which means that there is a high possibility of citrus target spot in low temperature and dry and cold seasons. The risk analysis finally created a multi-index comprehensive evaluation system of 5 criterion layers and 13 indicator layers, and quantitative and qualitative analyses of each indicator layer. The risk index value (R) of the disease was up to 2.08. This disease has the greatest potential harm to the two major citrus-producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin and in western Hubei and western Hunan.【Conclusion】In view of the high risk of citrus target spot, it is necessary to establish a monitoring system as soon as possible, and take effective control measures against the disease to prevent the spread between the citrus dominant area and adjacent citrus-producing areas in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

Key words: citrus target spot, Pseudofabraea citricarpa, national classification of suitable grades, multi-index comprehensive evaluation method, risk analysis

徐永红,陈力,唐松,丁德宽,杨宇衡. 柑橘轮斑病的适生区预测及风险分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2020, 53(21): 4430-4439.

XU YongHong,CHEN Li,TANG Song,DING DeKuan,YANG YuHeng. Prediction of Suitable Area and Risk Analysis for Citrus Target Spot[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2020, 53(21): 4430-4439.

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表3

柑橘轮斑病风险性定量分析评判指标赋分表"

评价指标 Evaluation index	评判标准 Criterion of evaluation					赋分原因 Reason for scoring	赋分值 Score
P₁	分布面积 Distribution area			0	P₁=3	在国内分布最大占比0.3% The largest domestic distribution accounts for 0.3%	P₁=2
				0-20%	P₁=2
				20%-50%	P₁=1
				>50%	P₁=0
P₂₁	产量或品质损失 Loss of yield or quality			>50%	P₂₁=3	柑橘轮斑病造成的产量损失难以统计,用其危害程度进行间接评价 The yield loss caused by citrus target spot is difficult to count, and its damage is used for indirect evaluation	P₂₁=3
				20%-50%	P₂₁=2
				1%-5%	P₂₁=1
				0	P₂₁=0
P₂₂	可传带检疫性有害生物数量 Number of quarantine pests that can be carried			≥3	P₂₂=3	不传带任何检疫性有害生物 Does not carry any quarantine pest	P₂₂=0
				2	P₂₂=2
				1	P₂₂=1
				0	P₂₂=0
P₃₁	受害栽培寄主 Variety of damaged hosts			≥10	P₃₁=3	目前受该病原侵染的栽培寄主仅限柑橘 The host currently infected by the pathogen is only citrus	P₃₁=1
				5-9	P₃₁=2
				1-4	P₃₁=1
				0	P₃₁=0
P₃₂	寄主种植面积 Planting area of damaged host			>35×10⁵hm²	P₃₂=3	城固、万州、安康柑橘总种植面积4.47×10⁴hm² The citrus planting in the affected area is 4.47×10⁴ hm²	P₃₂=1
				（15—35）×10⁵hm²	P₃₂=2
				<15×10⁵hm²	P₃₂=1
				0	P₃₂=0
P₃₃	寄主应用价值、出口创汇等方面 Host economic values				P₃₃=3,2,1,0	柑橘是国际贸易第一大水果,是重要的经济作物 Citrus is the largest fruit in international trade and an important cash crop	P₃₃=3
P₄₁	经常被截获Often intercepted				P₄₁=3	截至目前,柑橘轮斑病从未被截获 Citrus target spot has never been intercepted until now	P₄₁=1
	偶尔被截获Occasionally intercepted				P₄₁=2
	从未被截获或历史上只截获几次 Never intercepted or intercepted only a few times				P₄₁=1
P₄₂	存活率 Survival rate		>40%		P₄₂=3	运输过程中柑橘轮斑病不会被破坏,仍继续存在 Citrus target spot cannot be destroyed during transportation	P₄₂=3
			10%-40%		P₄₂=2
			0-10%		P₄₂=1
			0		P₄₂=0
P₄₃	适生区范围 Suitable area		>50%		P₄₃=3	适生区约占全国总面积的12.19%,即在全国12.19%的地区适宜生存 Suitable area accounts for 12.19% of total area of China	P₄₃=1
			25%-50%		P₄₃=2
			0-25%		P₄₃=1
			0		P₄₃=0
P₄₄	传播力 Transmissibility		强Strong		P₄₄=3	自2006年在城固发病后,10年左右才传至万州,认为其传播力很弱 Citrus target spot has only spread from Chenggu to Wanzhou in about 10 years, and it is believed that its spread is very weak	P₄₄=1
			中Medium		P₄₄=2
			弱Weak		P₄₄=1
P₅₁	检验鉴定方法 Identification method	可靠性低,耗时长 Low reliability and time-consuming			P₅₁=3	目前柑橘轮斑病菌的鉴定检验耗时较长,采用鉴定技术复杂 The identification of the pathogen takes a long time and the identification technology is complicated	P₅₁=2
		非常可靠且快速简便 High reliability and time-saving			P₅₁=0
		介于之间Medium			P₅₁=2,1
P₅₂	除害率 Removal rate	几乎完全不能除害 Almost impossible to eliminate			P₅₂=3	病害一经发生,尽管采取防治除害方法,病害依旧有部分肆意,不能完全消除病害 Once the disease occurs, the disease cannot be completely eliminated	P₅₂=2
		<50%			P₅₂=2
		50%-100%			P₅₂=1
		100%			P₅₂=0
P₅₃	防治效果 Control effect	差Poor			P₅₃=3	防治措施采取后,见效甚微 Control measures have little effect	P₅₃=3
		显著Significant			P₅₃=0
		介于之间Medium			P₅₃=2,1

表3

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代码Code	描述Description
Bio1	年均温Annual mean temperature
Bio2	昼夜温差月均值Mean diurnal range
Bio3	等温性Isothermality
Bio4	温度季节性变化的标准差Temperature seasonality
Bio5	最暖月最高温Maximum temperature of the warmest month
Bio6	最冷月最低温Minimum temperature of the coldest month
Bio7	年均温变化范围Temperature annual range
Bio8	最湿季度平均温度Mean temperature of the wettest quarter
Bio9	最干季度平均温度Mean temperature of the driest quarter
Bio10	最暖季度平均温度Mean temperature of the warmest quarter
Bio11	最冷季度平均温度Mean temperature of the coldest quarter
Bio12	年均降水量Annual precipitation
Bio13	最湿月降水量Precipitation of wettest month
Bio14	最干月降水量Precipitation of driest month
Bio15	降水量变异系数Precipitation seasonality
Bio16	最湿季度降水量Precipitation of the wettest quarter
Bio17	最干季度降水量Precipitation of the driest quarter
Bio18	最暖季度降水量Precipitation of the warmest quarter
Bio19	最冷季度降水量Precipitation of the coldest quarter

适生等级 Suitable level	潜在适生区 Potential suitable area	适生区所属柑橘优势区 Citrus-producing advantage area
高适生区 High suitable area	四川东部、重庆、陕西南部、贵州北部、湖北西北部 Eastern Sichuan, Chongqing, Southern Shaanxi, Northern Guizhou, Northwest Hubei	长江中上游柑橘优势区 The upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River
中适生区 Medium suitable area	贵州大部、湖北大部、四川东南部、云南东北局部 Most of Guizhou and Hubei, Southeast Sichuan, part of Northeast Yunnan	湖北西部-湖南西部柑橘优势区 Western Hubei-Western Hunan
低适生区 Low suitable area	河南大部、江苏大部、山东大部,安徽、山西、河北、湖南及云南局部 Most of Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong, parts of Anhui, Shanxi, Hebei, Hunan, and Yunnan