中国农业科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (19): 3769-3785.doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2016.19.009

• 土壤肥料·节水灌溉·农业生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国主要农作物秸秆可新型能源化生态经济总量分析

朱开伟1,刘 贞1,2,贺良萍1,林金钗1

 
  

  1. 1重庆理工大学低碳能源中心,中国重庆 400054
    2劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室,美国加州 94530
  • 收稿日期:2016-04-25 出版日期:2016-10-01 发布日期:2016-10-01
  • 通讯作者: 刘贞,Tel:023-62563167;E-mail:zhenliu@tsinghua.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:朱开伟,Tel:023-62563167;E-mail:kaiwei_zhu@foxmail.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71573026)、重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS16223)

Eco-Economic Potential Analysis of Chinese Main Crops’ Bio-Energy Utilization Straw Resources

ZHU Kai-wei1, LIU Zhen1,2, HE Liang-ping1, LIN Jin-chai1   

  1. 1Low-Carbon Energy Research, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China
    2Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California 94530, USA
  • Received:2016-04-25 Online:2016-10-01 Published:2016-10-01

摘要: 【目的】如何在保护生态环境和考虑秸秆资源开发成本的基础上,实现秸秆资源的合理开发,对中国农业生物质能发展规划有着重要的意义。因此,从保护生态环境和开发成本角度,对可新型能源化利用秸秆资源的生态经济总量进行评估,为生物质能产业布局、优先发展区域、优先发展技术以及政策制定提供参考。【方法】采用文献调研法对研究秸秆还田量与水土流失、土壤有机质和农作物单产关系的文献进行梳理,在此基础上提出土壤生态保留量的概念,并归纳出不同农作物的基础土壤生态保留量;根据基准年农作物单产、种植结构和草谷比系数,考虑土壤生态保留量和秸秆用途,对区域秸秆生态总量和资源密度进行计算;对政府政策和相关项目成本进行分析,设计发展情景和项目成本参数,并以项目投资回报率为变量,计算不同回报率下项目的经济收集半径;根据秸秆资源密度和经济收集半径,计算项目的经济收集量,并与项目理论需求量进行比较,整理出不同项目可用秸秆生态经济总量。【结果】中国主要农作物可新型能源化利用秸秆生态总量约8 661.31万t,主要分布在广西、四川、山东和河南,主要由薯类、甘蔗和油菜秸秆构成。当投资回报率(ROI)为0时,现有技术水平和政策下,6 MW、25 MW直燃发电项目,12 MW气化发电项目,年产5 000 t和10 000 t燃料成型项目可用秸秆生态经济总量分别为8 658.24×104、8 655.29×104、8 658.24×104、3 314.69×104和8 661.31×104 t。当ROI为5%时,6 MW、25 MW直燃发电项目,12 MW气化发电项目,年产5 000 t和10 000 t燃料成型项目可用秸秆生态经济总量分别为7 943.15×104、8 347.38×104、8 347.38×104、260.45×104和8 661.31×104 t。当ROI为10%时,6 MW、25 MW直燃发电项目,12 MW气化发电项目,年产5 000 t和10 000 t燃料成型项目可用秸秆生态经济总量分别为1 853.29×104、7 023.24×104、7 068.07×104、0和8 661.31×104 t。在现有技术水平和政策下,不同ROI下纤维素乙醇项目的可用秸秆生态经济总量均为0。【结论】(1)现有政策对发电类项目有显著的激励作用,可适当降低对年产10 000 t燃料成型项目的补贴力度,提高发电类项目的补贴力度;(2)在生物质能产业布局方面,现阶段可优先发展年产10 000 t秸秆燃料成型项目,可优先在广西、湖北、广东、安徽、河南等地规划建设12 MW秸秆气化发电项目,其次可考虑在广西、湖北、广东和安徽规划建设25 MW秸秆直燃发电项目,最后可考虑在广西规划建设6 MW秸秆直燃发电项目。

关键词: 土壤生态保留量, 秸秆生态经济总量, 经济收集半径, 生物质能

Abstract: 【Objective】Realizing the reasonable development of straw resource on the basis of protecting environment has important significance to Chinese agricultural bio-energy development planning. And effective development of straw resource is also closely related with cost. Thus, from the perspective of protecting environment and cost, this study analyzed the eco-economic potential of main crops’ energy utilization straw resource in different regions, which can provide reference for the layout of agricultural bio-energy industry, prior suitable regions for straw energy utilization project, prior developing technology and government policy formulation.【Method】Based on the research for the studies on the relationship between straw returning amount and soil erosion, soil organic matter, and the crop yield, the concept of soil ecological reserve amount was put forward and the specific returning amount of different crop straws were concluded. Combining the crop yield, planting structure, and grass grain ratio in benchmark year with the soil ecological reserve amount and other straw usages, the total ecological energy utilization straw resource and straw resource density were calculated by regions. Analyzing the policies and costs of different straw energy utilization projects, four developing scenarios and project costs were designed, and the economic collecting radius in different ratio of return on investment (ROI) was calculated by regions. According to the density and economic collecting radius, straw economic collecting amount was calculated, and then comparing the economic collecting amount with the project’s theory straw demand, to conclude the eco-economic straw collecting amount and space distribution of different projects.【Result】The straws can be used for bio-energy are 86.61 million ton, mainly distributed in Guangxi, Sichuan, Shandong and Henan, and the main straws are those of potato, sugar and rapeseed straws. When ROI is 0, the available straw for 6 MW SDFPG, 25 MW SDFPG, 12 MW SGPG, BMF 5 000 t·a-1 and BMF 10 000 t·a-1, respectively, is 86.85, 86.55, 86.85, 33.15, 86.61 million ton at the current level technology and incentive policy. When ROI is 5%, the available straw for 6 MW SDFPG, 25 MW SDFPG, 12 MW SGPG, BMF 5 000 t·a-1 and BMF 10 000 t·a-1, respectively, is 79.43, 83.47, 83.47, 2.60, and 86.61 million ton. When ROI is 10%, the available straw for 6 MW SDFPG, 25 MW SDFPG, 12 MW SGPG, BMF 5 000 t·a-1 and BMF 10 000 t·a-1, respectively, is 18.53, 70.23, 70.68, 0, and 86.61 million ton. At current level technology and incentive policy, under different scenarios, the available straws for CE projects are always 0 in different ROI.【Conclusion】The existing policies have obvious incentives for power projects, the incentives for BMF 10 000 t·a-1 should be appropriately reduced, and the incentives for power projects should be increased. In straw energy industry layout, at present, as for the BMF 10 000 t·a-1, first priority should be given, then first priority should be given to Guangxi, Hubei, Guangdong, Anhui, and Hainan to build 12 MW SGPS, and then construction of 25 MW SDFPG should be considered in Guangxi, Hubei, Guangdong and Anhui, and finally, construction of 6 MW SDFPG in Guangxi should be considered. Now the cost of CE project is so high that it does not necessarily produce economic benefits in every region.

Key words: soil ecological reserve amount, eco-economic straw resource amount, economic collecting radius, biomass energy