关键词: 新情景, RCPs, 气候变化影响

Abstract: In part because of the growing number of scenarios developed within the professional research community, the IPCC decided during its 25th session (April 2006) that the research community would undertake development of scenarios for assessment in a possible AR5, while the IPCC’s role would be limited to catalyzing and assessing such work. And the IPCC decision indicates that RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) as concentration pathways in order to emphasize that while they are based on existing scenarios in the literature that have underlying socio-economic assumptions and emissions outcomes, they are being selected on the basis of their emissions pathways and associated concentrations of radiatively active gases and aerosols, and their primary purpose is to provide these concentration pathways to the climate modeling community to produce new climate change projections. The RCPs should be “compatible with” the full range of emissions scenarios in the peer reviewed literature. In order to take into account the effects of emissions of all greenhouse gases and aerosols, the RCPs have been selected based primarily on their emissions and associated concentration outcomes, measured as the net radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The paper suggest DC/EIT to actively attend the development of new models and scenarios in order to advance scientific research and political negotiate of greenhouse gas emission and emission right distribution.

Key words: new scenarios, RCPs