With increasing population and changing demographics,
food consumption has experienced a significant transition in quantity and
quality. However, a dearth of knowledge
remains regarding its environmental impacts and how it responds to demographic
dynamics, particularly in emerging economies like China. Using the two-stage Quadratic Almost Demand
System (QUAIDS) model, this study empirically examines the impact of
demographic dynamics on food consumption and its environmental outcomes based
on the provincial data from 2000 to 2020 in China. Under various scenarios, according to changes
in demographics, we extend our analysis to project the long-term trend of food
consumption and its environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, water footprint (WF), and land appropriation (LA). The results reveal that an increase in the
proportion of senior people significantly decreases the consumption of grain
and livestock meat and increases the consumption of poultry, egg, and aquatic
products, particularly for urban residents.
Moreover, an increase in the proportion of males in the population leads
to higher consumption of poultry and aquatic products. Correspondingly, in the current scenario of
an increased aging population and sex ratio, it is anticipated that GHG
emissions, WF, and LA are likely to decrease by 1.37, 2.52, and 3.56%,
respectively. More importantly, in the
scenario adhering to the standards of nutritional intake according to the
Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents in 2022, GHG emissions, WF, and LA in
urban areas would increase by 12.78, 20.94, and 18.32%, respectively. Our findings suggest that changing
demographics should be considered when designing policies to mitigate the
diet-environment-health trilemma and achieve sustainable food consumption.