耕地资源非农化驱动机制及其区域差异性

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2015.08.18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】耕地资源的非农化过度产生了诸多的社会和环境问题，严重威胁国家的粮食安全，影响了城镇的可持续发展。研究耕地资源非农化的驱动机制及其区域的差异性，有助于揭示如何在坚持经济持续增长的前提下实现耕地资源安全与城镇化的发展。【方法】首先采用2001—2008年中国耕地资源非农化、城镇人口增长、固定资产投资、经济发展水平和耕地资源禀赋面板数据，利用固定效应面板模型对中国耕地资源非农化机制进行研究，为了对比不同地区间的差异性，进而分别对东部、中部和西部的数据进行模型检验，对比分析三大地区在耕地资源非农化驱动机制方面的差异性。【结果】模型检验结果显示，在控制城镇人口增长和固定资产投资变量的基础上，经济发展水平及其二次项、耕地禀赋变量均呈现显著状态。东中西部地区在耕地资源非农化机制方面存在差异性，在控制所有影响因素变量后，耕地资源禀赋变量在东部地区呈现出较强的显著性，而固定资源投资变量在中西部地区呈现出较强的显著性，中部地区固定资产投资变量弹性系数要大于西部地区。【结论】耕地资源非农化与经济发展水平呈现出显著的环境库兹涅兹曲线倒“U”型规律。城镇人口增长和固定资产投资对耕地资源非农化的驱动呈现显著的正向作用，城镇人口每增长（或者下降）1%，耕地资源非农化数量将提高（或者降低）0.1个百分点，固定资产投资每增长（或者下降）1%，耕地资源非农化数量将提高（或者降低）0.7个百分点。耕地资源非农化驱动因素在东中西部具有显著的差异性，东部地区耕地资源禀赋是影响耕地资源非农化的显著因素，耕地资源禀赋富足的区域趋向于更高的耕地资源非农化速度。中西部地区耕地资源的非农化则受到固定资产投资作用强烈，中部地区固定资产投资对耕地资源非农化驱动作用要大于西部地区。

关键词: 耕地资源非农化, 驱动机制, 实证分析, 耕地资源禀赋, 环境库兹涅茨曲线

Abstract: 【Objective】 The purpose of this study is to reveal the cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation and its regional differentiation. 【Method】 Firstly, the cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation in China was analyzed based on the method of fixed-effect panel data model and by using Chinese cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation, growth of town populations, investment in fixed assets, level of economic development, cultivated land resource endowment panel data in 2001-2008. In order to compare the difference of different areas, test the models using eastern region data, midland data, and western region data, respectively, the differences among the three regions in cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation were comparative analyzed. 【Result】 Model test results show that the economic development level and its quadratic term, cultivated land resource endowment show a significant state based on the control of urban population growth and fixed asset investment. There are differences among eastern, central and western regions. Investment in fixed assets and cultivated land resource endowment show a extreme significance in eastern, central, and western regions respectively. Elastic coefficient of investment in fixed assets in central regions is bigger than western regions.【Conclusion】 The cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation and economic development show a significant reverse diagram "U" rule of Environmental Kuznets Curve. The cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation in China is significantly influenced by the urbanization growth and investment in fixed assets. Urban population increase (or decrease) of each 1%, the quantity of cultivated land conversion will increase (or decrease) of 0.1 percentage, investment in fixed assets increase (or decrease) of each 1%, the quantity of cultivated land conversion will increase (or decrease) of 0.7 percentage. Cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation driving factors have significant difference among eastern, central and western regions. Cultivated land resource endowment is a significant affecting factor of non-agricultural-transformation in eastern China, cultivated land resource rich regions tend to higher speed of cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation. Investment in fixed assets is a significant affecting factor of non-agricultural-transformation in central and western China, driving effect of investment in fixed assets in central regions is greater than western regions.

Key words: cultivated land non-agricultural-transformation, driving mechanism, empirical analysis, resource endowment of cultivated land, Environmental Kuznets Curve

张光宏，崔许锋. 耕地资源非农化驱动机制及其区域差异性[J]. 中国农业科学, 2015, 48(8): 1632-1640.

ZHANG Guang-hong, CUI Xu-feng. Driving Mechanism and Regional Differentiation of Cultivated Land Non-Agricultural-Transformation[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2015, 48(8): 1632-1640.

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