基于产量统计模型的农作物保险定价研究进展

doi:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.12.025

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来中国农业保险得到了快速发展，农作物保险费率定价问题受到高度重视。产量统计模型是农作物保险精算中较为成熟、应用广泛的一种模型，适用于中国开展的农作物保险实践。论文在广泛综述国内外研究进展的基础上，探讨了产量统计模型中存在的主要问题，并就该模型未来发展的趋势进行了讨论。研究表明：（1）产量统计模型中的趋势处理和分布拟合环节是模型不确定性的两个主要来源。针对农作物单产趋势的研究，应该进一步开发可灵活表达趋势变化规律的模型，并注重趋势检测结果的验证。对于概率密度分布模型的选择必须遵循作物和风险的区域特征。（2）产量统计模型尚不能有效解决空间相关风险累加的问题。引入空间要素，形成产量的综合时空统计模型是经典产量统计模型的重要发展方向，可有效解决农作物保险精算中的相关空间问题。在上述问题中对传统产量统计模型进行改进，从而形成可计算、高精度和更稳健的产量统计模型，并在农作物保险定价中开展实践，将有助于中国农业保险向着科学化、专业化和精细化的方向发展。

关键词: 农作物保险, 费率厘定, 产量统计模型

Abstract: In recent years, crop insurance in China grows rapidly, but it still lacks actuarial support. The yield simulation model is one of the most widely employed models used in crop insurance premium rating, and is tailored for multi-peril yield insurance lines. It will promote crop insurance rating research and practice in China to comprehensively introduce the model. This article summarized the major issues that induce uncertainty and problems in accuracy in the yield simulation model, and provided discussions on its future development on the basis of a comprehensive review. It was found that detrending and distribution fitting are the two major uncertain factors. The problem that has not been well solved by the model is the aggregation of spatially-correlated risks. It was suggested that detrending analysis should pay enough attention to information beyond the yield data and emphasize on trend verification. Empirical models used for distribution fitting should be crop and region specific. The most urgent development for the yield simulation model is incorporating spatial elements and developing integrated spatial-temporal yield simulation model to cope with spatial correlation of individual risks. All of these require further interdisciplinary efforts from geography, agriculture, disaster and risk, and actuary, etc., to improve the capability of classic yield simulation model.

Key words: crop insurance, premium rating, yield simulation model

叶涛, 聂建亮, 武宾霞, 李曼, 史培军. 基于产量统计模型的农作物保险定价研究进展[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(12): 2544-2551.

YE Tao, NIE Jian-Liang, WU Bin-Xia, LI Man, SHI Pei-Jun. Crop Insurance Premium Rating Based on Yield Simulation Models[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(12): 2544-2551.

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