关键词: 外来入侵物种, 红火蚁, 相似离度, 气候相似理论, 适生区域, 入侵概率, 预警级别

Abstract: 【Objective】The aim of the study is to apply analogy deviation to predict potential distribution of Solenopsis invicta Buren, and its invasion probability in China.【Method】Investigating distribution data of S. invicta and collecting meteorologic data of weather station in the world, and establishing climatic location sets of native range and seriously happened range of S. invicta. According to the climatic analogy theory, analogy deviation helps to find the area that climate matching for location sets. The relative percentage of value in analogy deviation is considered the value of invasion probability, and due to those value to built level alarm.【Result】The result shows that Hongkong, Macao, Guangdong and Guangxi belong to red level alarm range, and their invasion probability are more than 80%. Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Taiwan, Guizhou, Yunan and Hainan are part of orange level alarm range, and their invasion probability are between 50% and 80%. The other area in China belong to lower risk range.【Conclusion】The place in red level alarm range must be taken effective measures to control this pest. Pay more attention to Sichuan, Chongqing and southeast Yunan which haven’t been invaded by S. invicta, two reasons as follow: firstly, those place mentioned above are more climatic similar with native range than the other place; secondly, S. invicta has highly climatic adaptability. In addition, this study performs that analogy deviation playing a resultful role in forecasting potential areas of alien species.

Key words: Solenopsis invicta Buren, Analogy deviation, Climatic analogy theory, Suitable distribution, Invasion probability, Level alarm