全球变化背景下黄河上游生态系统服务和生态风险的关系

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2025, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 966-983.DOI: 10.1016/j.jia.2024.09.015

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全球变化背景下黄河上游生态系统服务和生态风险的关系

收稿日期:2024-05-13 接受日期:2024-08-19 出版日期:2025-03-20 发布日期:2025-02-28

Ecological risks linked with ecosystem services in the upper reach of the Yellow River under global changes

Ruowei Li^{1, 2}, Jian Sun^{1, 2#}, Guodong Han^2#, Zixuan Qi³, Yunhui Li¹, Junhe Chen¹, Wen He⁴, Mengqi Zhang¹, Chaowei Han⁵, Jieji Duo^{1, 6}

¹ State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science (LATPES), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
²Key Laboratory of Grassland Resources of the Ministry of Education, College of Grassland, Resources and Environment, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China
³ Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
⁴ Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University–The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Chengdu 610207, China
⁵Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China
⁶ Haixi Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Center, Delingha 817099, China

Received:2024-05-13 Accepted:2024-08-19 Online:2025-03-20 Published:2025-02-28
About author:Ruowei Li, Mobile: +86-18747794658, E-mail: liruowei199666@163.com; #Correspondence Jian Sun, Mobile: +86-18301068172, E-mail: sunjian@itpcas.ac.cn; Guodong Han, Mobile: +86-13087122590, E-mail: hanguodong@imau.edu.cn
Supported by:
This research was supported by the Ecological Conservation and High-Quality Development of the Yellow River Basin Program, China (2022-YRUC-01-0102), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program, China (20190ZKK0405), and the Basic Research Fund Project of Innovation Team of Novel Forage Germplasm and Sustainable Utilization of Grassland Resources, China (BR22-12-07).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前，将生态风险（Ecological risks, ERs）和生态系统服务（Ecosystem services, ESs）纳入实践应用和政策制定的研究日益增加。然而，综合考量ESs和ERs并运用于实际决策中的研究依旧缺乏。本研究利用InVEST模型和景观生态风险模型，通过CMIP6不同情景下气候变化和土地利用变化驱动，模拟了2000-2100年黄河上游生态系统服务（碳储量、产水量、生境质量，和土壤保持）和生态风险的时空动态变化，并梳理了它们之间的关系。主要研究结果表明，2000-2020年，该区域ERs面积减少了27673 m²，但在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，预计ERs将分别增加13273 m²、438 m²和68 m²。在过去和未来情景中ESs和ERs均存在显着的空间差异。其中，黄河源区的ESs高，ERs低（p<0.001），而黄河上游东北部ESs低，ERs高（p<0.05）。总结而言，提出的关于提高生态系统服务和降低生态风险的空间优化框架，可为区域可持续发展提供理论支持。

Abstract:

There is growing interest in introducing ecological risks (ERs) and ecosystem services (ESs) into environmental policies and practices. However, the integration of ESs and ERs into actual decision-making remains insufficient. We simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs (e.g., carbon storage, water yield, habitat quality, and soil conservation) and ERs in the upper reach of the Yellow River (URYR) from 2000 to 2100. Additionally, we explored their relationships by combining the InVEST model and a landscape ecological risk model with CMIP6 data. Our main findings showed that regional ERs change in response to land use and environmental dynamics. Specifically, the ER area decreased by 27,673 m² during 2000-2020, but it is projected to increase by 13,273, 438, and 68 m² under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. We also observed remarkable spatial differences in ESs and ERs between past and future scenarios. For instance, the source area of the URYR exhibited high ESs and low ERs (P<0.001), while the ESs and ERs are declining and increasing, respectively, in the northeastern URYR (P<0.05). Finally, we proposed a spatial optimization framework to improve ESs and reduce ERs, which will support regional sustainable development.

Key words: climate change , CMIP6 , Yellow River basin , Tibetan Plateau , adaptive management , sustainable development

Ruowei Li, Jian Sun, Guodong Han, Zixuan Qi, Yunhui Li, Junhe Chen, Wen He, Mengqi Zhang, Chaowei Han, Jieji Duo. 全球变化背景下黄河上游生态系统服务和生态风险的关系[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2025, 24(3): 966-983.

Ruowei Li, Jian Sun, Guodong Han, Zixuan Qi, Yunhui Li, Junhe Chen, Wen He, Mengqi Zhang, Chaowei Han, Jieji Duo. Ecological risks linked with ecosystem services in the upper reach of the Yellow River under global changes[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2025, 24(3): 966-983.

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