Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2025, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (10): 4078-4099.DOI: 10.1016/j.jia.2025.04.038

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量化1982年至2016年三重复合极端事件对全球主要农作物产量损失的贡献

  

  • 收稿日期:2024-10-30 修回日期:2025-04-30 接受日期:2025-04-01 出版日期:2025-10-20 发布日期:2025-09-24

Quantifying the contribution of triple compound extreme events to global yield loss of major staple crops from 1982 to 2016

Kun Xiao1, Ying Sun1, Wei Wu2, Xuewen Zhou1, Zhicheng Zhang1, Qiuyao Lai1, Chen Huang1, Zhenhua Xiong1, Qinchuan Xin1, 3#   

  1. 1 Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

    2 Mining College, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China

    3 School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

  • Received:2024-10-30 Revised:2025-04-30 Accepted:2025-04-01 Online:2025-10-20 Published:2025-09-24
  • About author:Kun Xiao, E-mail: xiaok6@mail2.sysu.edu.cn; #Correspondence Qinchuan Xin, E-mail: xinqinchuan@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:

    This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42371483, and 42401573), the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation, China (2022B1515130001), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (2024A1515012081 and 2025A1515010770), the Guangzhou Basic and Applied Basic Research Project, China (202201011666), and the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (GZB20240880).

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摘要：

在持续气候变化背景下，复合极端事件发生频率日益增加，已对全球粮食安全构成严重威胁。与单一极端事件相比，多个极端事件的同时发生会加剧农作物产量的下降，然而，针对这类复合影响的系统评估仍相对有限。为弥补这一研究空白，本研究采用线性混合效应模型，定量评估了1982年至2016年间，单一极端事件（寒冷日（CD）和致死温度日数（KDD））以及三种复合极端事件（热浪与低降水（HWLP）和高温干燥大风（HDW））对全球冬小麦、大豆和玉米产量的影响。结果表明，在受极端事件严重影响的地区（超过95%分位阈值），CD、KDD、HWLP和HDW分别导致农作物总产量损失超过9.16%、24.89%、26.69%和7.12%。复合极端事件的不利影响在作物关键生育期尤为显著。HWLP在抽穗至收获期每暴露10小时可导致冬小麦和玉米产量分别下降9.4%和6.8%，而在播种至三叶期可使大豆产量下降8.8%。同样，KDD在抽穗至收获期每增加10°C·日可使冬小麦产量下降7.4%，在播种至拔节期可使玉米产量下降9.5%，在播种至三叶期可使大豆产量下降3.8%。研究结果强调了复合极端事件在决定全球主要粮食作物产量中的重要作用，这一因素在现有的风险评估中往往被忽视。

Abstract:

The increasing frequency of compound extreme events under ongoing climate change threatens global food security.  Compared to individual extreme events, the simultaneous occurrence of multiple extreme events can exacerbate crop yield reductions, yet comprehensive assessments of these compound effects remain limited.  To bridge this gap, we applied a linear mixed-effects model to quantify the impacts of individual extreme events (cold days (CD) and killing degree days (KDD)) and triple compound extreme events (heatwave and low precipitation (HWLP) and hot-dry-windy (HDW)) on the global yields of winter wheat, soybeans, and maize from 1982 to 2016.  Our analysis indicated that regions severely impacted by extreme events (exceeding the 95% threshold) experienced total crop yield losses of more than 9.16, 24.89, 26.69, and 7.12% due to CD, KDD, HWLP, and HDW, respectively.  The adverse effects of compound events were particularly pronounced during critical growth stages.  HWLP results in yield losses of 9.4% for winter wheat and 6.8% for maize per 10 hours of exposure during the heading to harvesting stages, while soybean yields declined by 8.8% per 10 hours during the planting to three-true-leaf stage.  Similarly, KDD caused a 7.4% yield reduction in winter wheat per 10°C day during the heading to harvesting stages, a 9.5% reduction in maize per 10°C day during the planting to jointing stages, and a 3.8% reduction in soybean per 10°C day during the planting to three-true-leaf stages.  These findings underscore the substantial contribution of compound extreme events, which are often overlooked in existing risk assessments, in determining the global yields of major staple crops.

Key words: food security , crop yield loss , compound extreme events , climate change