中国成年居民增加全谷物摄入对医疗成本和碳排放影响效果评估

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2023.12.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前，对精制谷物的过度消费危及人类健康和生态系统的可持续性，而使用全谷物替代部分精制谷物对居民健康与环境可持续都有积极意义。一方面，相对于精加工谷物，全谷物中富含的膳食纤维、B族维生素和生物活性物质对居民健康有益；另一方面，全谷物加工过程中粮食与营养损失更小，能耗更低，进而碳排放水平较低。然而，很少有研究试图评估增加全谷物摄入量所带来的经济和社会效益。本文估计了按照中国居民膳食指南（CDG）推荐的方式增加全谷物摄入量可能节约的医疗成本和减少的食物碳排放量。如果一定比例（从5%到100%）的中国成年人（大于20岁）平均全谷物摄入量从19.8g/d增加至中国居民膳食指南推荐摄入量下线标准50g/d，根据估计，相关疾病包括二型糖尿病（T2DM）、心血管疾病（CVD）和结肠直肠癌（CRC）的医疗成本将大幅降低，下降幅度为28.2亿美元至563.7亿美元，碳排放预计也将减少24万吨至572万吨。本研究结果表明增加全谷物摄入量可以为居民健康、环境和社会带来显著的益处。

Abstract:

Excessive consumption of refined grains harms human health and ecosystem viability. Whole grains, as a healthy and sustainable alternative to refined grains, can benefit individual health by providing dietary fiber, B vitamins, and bioactive substances. Additionally, they aid in improving the environment due to their higher extraction rate and lower carbon emission during the processing stage. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate the economic and social benefits of increasing the amount of whole grain in grain intake. This paper estimates the potential savings in healthcare costs and reduced food carbon footprints (CFs) that could result from a shift toward whole grain consumption following the Chinese Dietary Guidelines (CDG). We investigate hypothetical scenarios where a certain proportion (5–100%) of Chinese adults could increase their whole grain intakes as proposed by CDG to meet the average shortfall of 30.2 g. In that case, the healthcare costs for associated diseases (e.g., type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and colorectal cancer (CRC)) are expected to reduce by a substantial amount, from USD 2.82 to 56.37 billion; the carbon emission levels are also projected to decrease by 0.24–5.72 million tons. This study provides compelling evidence that advocating for the transition towards greater consumption of whole grain products could benefit individual health, the environment, and society, by reducing both healthcare costs and carbon emissions.

Key words: whole grains , cost analysis , public health , life cycle assessment (LCA) , carbon footprint

Xin Zhang, Jingjing Wang, Fuli Tan, Haixiu Gao, Shenggen Fan. 中国成年居民增加全谷物摄入对医疗成本和碳排放影响效果评估[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2024, 23(8): 2842-2852.

Xin Zhang, Jingjing Wang, Fuli Tan, Haixiu Gao, Shenggen Fan. The potential impact of increased whole grain consumption among Chinese adults on reducing healthcare costs and carbon footprint[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2024, 23(8): 2842-2852.

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