Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2024, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (8): 2853-2867.DOI: 10.1016/j.jia.2023.12.001

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新冠肺炎疫情下的中亚地区粮食安全问题研究：以塔吉克斯坦农村家庭为例

  

  • 收稿日期:2023-05-08 接受日期:2023-11-24 出版日期:2024-08-20 发布日期:2024-07-29

Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia: Evidence from rural Tajikistan

Yuhan Zhao1*, Chen Qian1*, Yumei Zhang2, Xiande Li1#, Kamiljon T. Akramov3   

  1. 1 Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
    2 Academy of Global Food Economics and Policy, College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
    3 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D.C. 20005, USA
  • Received:2023-05-08 Accepted:2023-11-24 Online:2024-08-20 Published:2024-07-29
  • About author:Yuhan Zhao, E-mail: hanazhao@stu.scau.edu.cn; Chen Qian, E-mail: qianchen@caas.cn; #Correspondence Xiande Li, Tel: +86-10-82106160, Fax: +86-10-62187545, E-mail: gjmy6160@caas.cn * These authors contributed equally to this study.
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71961147001) and the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (10-IAED-04-2023).

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摘要：

了解新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情期间中亚地区农村家庭的粮食安全变化情况，对于该地区制定粮食安全保障与可持续发展策略至关重要。本研究利用塔吉克斯坦农村地区5800户家庭调查数据，采用两阶段QUAIDS模型对农村家庭九种食物的支出、收入和价格弹性进行了实证估计，评估塔吉克斯坦农村地区的食物消费情况。在此基础上，本文进一步构建微观模拟模型（microsimulation model），评估新冠肺炎疫情冲击导致的侨汇收入下降和食物价格上涨对塔吉克斯坦农村家庭粮食安全的影响。结果表明，塔吉克斯坦农村家庭对不同食物的需求弹性存在显著差异，其中对富含营养的食物（如肉类、水果、鸡蛋和牛奶）表现出较高的需求弹性。研究还发现在新冠肺炎疫情期间，侨汇收入和食物价格的变化对农村家庭的粮食安全产生了显著的负面影响，将导致该地区的粮食安全率下降约30%。这些发现对于关注后疫情时期侨汇收入依赖型经济体的农村生计和粮食安全的政策制定具有重要启示。

Abstract:

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central Asia.  We present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Based on an extensive household survey data set from Tajikistan, we estimate the expenditure, income, and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS model.  Then, we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic shock.  There are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups, with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods, such as meat, fruit, eggs, and milk, in rural households.  Moreover, our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices significantly negatively affected food security for rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic.  These findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.

Key words: international remittances , food security ,  COVID-19 ,  Tajikistan ,  Central Asia