非洲猪瘟背景下扑杀补偿政策的优化设计
——基于代表性养殖场的模拟

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2022.12.001

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2023, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2): 611-622.DOI: 10.1016/j.jia.2022.12.001

非洲猪瘟背景下扑杀补偿政策的优化设计 ——基于代表性养殖场的模拟

收稿日期:2022-03-28 接受日期:2022-10-13 出版日期:2023-02-20 发布日期:2022-10-13

Optimal design of culling compensation policy under the African swine fever — Based on simulations of typical pig farms in China

GUO Shi-juan^{1, 2}, LÜ Xin-ye¹, HU Xiang-dong¹

¹Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
²Institute of Agricultural Information and Economy, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jinan 250000, P.R.China

Received:2022-03-28 Accepted:2022-10-13 Online:2023-02-20 Published:2022-10-13
About author:GUO Shi-juan, E-mail: guoshijuan90@126.com; Correspondence HU Xiang-dong, E-mail: huxiangdong@caas.cn
Supported by:
This work was supported by the the Science and Technology Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (21-2060302-034).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文通过情景模拟的方法，从微观角度探究了扑杀补偿政策的优化问题。文章基于全国8个省份273个养猪场的调查，从养殖场规模和养殖模式的角度构建了4个代表性养猪场（户）并构建了养殖场（户）在发生疑似疫情时的行为决策函数。本文基于激励养殖场（户）报告疫情的目标，从补偿标准和当地部门执行的视角设计了模拟场景。结果表明，不同类型的养殖场（户）和畜群日龄使得疫情报告的最优决策存在差异。研究结果表明了扑杀补偿政策的调整方向：1）以市场价值为基础制定扑杀补偿标准；2）保持畜牧兽医部门高水平的疫情监测能力。

Abstract: This paper aims to optimize the culling compensation policy from a micro perspective through scenario simulation. Based on an investigation of 273 pig farms in eight regions, four typical pig farms were constructed according to farm size and breeding mode, representing the swine producers in China. Besides, a decision objective function of pig farms facing suspected African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks was constructed. This study used a mathematical programming model to design and simulate scenarios based on compensation standards and local implementation levels, aiming to incentivize pig farms to report epidemics. The results show that the optimal decisions on epidemic reports differed among typical farms and by herd daily age. The results suggest the following adjustments for optimizing culling compensation policies: (1) to set culling compensation standards based on the market value and (2) to maintain a high level of epidemic surveillance capability in the animal husbandry and veterinary sector.

Key words: culling compensation , African Swine Fever , epidemic report , mathematical programming model

. 非洲猪瘟背景下扑杀补偿政策的优化设计 ——基于代表性养殖场的模拟[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(2): 611-622.

GUO Shi-juan, LÜ Xin-ye, HU Xiang-dong. Optimal design of culling compensation policy under the African swine fever — Based on simulations of typical pig farms in China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(2): 611-622.

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非洲猪瘟背景下扑杀补偿政策的优化设计 ——基于代表性养殖场的模拟

Optimal design of culling compensation policy under the African swine fever — Based on simulations of typical pig farms in China

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