气候变化情景下中国新发马铃薯害虫窄缘施夜蛾的潜在地理分布识别

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2022.08.023

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农作物害虫的传播扩散和气候变化下农作物和害虫之间复杂的相互作用威胁着全球粮食安全。窄缘施夜蛾是中国南方新发的马铃薯害虫，在中国马铃薯产区造成马铃薯减产和质量下降，对窄缘施夜蛾的早期预警监测可以对中国的农业生产起到保护作用。本研究利用最优的MaxEnt模型识别气候变化情景下窄缘施夜蛾在中国的潜在地理分布区，为预防窄缘施夜蛾造成进一步危害提供基础。研究结果表明，最优的MaxEnt模型准确性高于默认设置的MaxEnt模型。最冷月最低温度，最干月降水量，最冷季度降水量和人类影响指数对窄缘施夜蛾的潜在地理分布有着显著的影响。窄缘施夜蛾的高度和中度适宜生境主要位于中国东部和南部地区。气候变化情景下，窄缘施夜蛾在中国的潜在地理分布区将会缩小，主要表现为高度适宜生境转化为中度适宜生境。从现代气候条件下到2030年，窄缘施夜蛾的潜在地理分布中心呈向东北方向和高纬度地区迁移的趋势。马铃薯种植区的田间覆膜为窄缘施夜蛾的生存提供了有利的微气候，我们应更加重视窄缘施夜蛾的早期预警工作，防止其在中国冬种马铃薯区域进一步扩散。

Abstract:

Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change. Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato pest in southern China. Early-warning monitoring of this insect pest could protect domestic agriculture as it has already caused regional yield reduction and/or quality decline in potato production. Our research aimed to confirm the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of S. costaestrigalis in China under different climate scenarios using an optimal MaxEnt model, and to provide baseline data for preventing agricultural damage by S. costaestrigalis. Our findings indicated that the accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model was better than the default-setting model, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and the human influence index were the variables significantly affecting the PGDs of S. costaestrigalis. The highly- and moderately-suitable habitats of S. costaestrigalis were mainly located in eastern and southern China. The PGDs of S. costaestrigalis in China will decrease under climate change. The conversion of the highly- to moderately-suitable habitat will also be significant under climate change. The centroid of the suitable habitat area of S. costaestrigalis under the current climate showed a general tendency to move northeast and to the middle-high latitudes in the 2030s. The agricultural practice of plastic film mulching in potato fields will provide a favorable microclimate for S. costaestrigalis in the suitable areas. More attention should be paid to the early warning and monitoring of S. costaestrigalis in order to prevent its further spread in the main areas in China’s winter potato planting regions.

Key words: climate change , potential geographical distribution , crop insect pests , Schrankia costaestrigalis , MaxEnt model

XIAN Xiao-qing, ZHAO Hao-xiang, GUO Jian-yang, ZHANG Gui-fen, LIU Hui, LIU Wan-xue, WAN Fang-hao. 气候变化情景下中国新发马铃薯害虫窄缘施夜蛾的潜在地理分布识别[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(8): 2441-2455.

XIAN Xiao-qing, ZHAO Hao-xiang, GUO Jian-yang, ZHANG Gui-fen, LIU Hui, LIU Wan-xue, WAN Fang-hao. Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of a new potato pest (Schrankia costaestrigalis) in China under climate change[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(8): 2441-2455.

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