随着居民收入的快速增长，中国牛肉消费量已从2000年的500万吨增长到了2019年的770万吨，但与猪肉和禽肉相比仍处于较低水平。在中国中等收入群体不断扩大的背景下，加深收入增长对牛肉消费影响的认识十分必要，这对于展望未来牛肉消费需求并为国内牛肉产业提供决策参考具有重要价值。本文基于国家统计局的32878户城镇居民家庭调查数据，运用反双曲正弦转换（IHS）的广义双栏模型估计了出城镇不同收入组家庭的牛肉需求收入弹性，并对未来牛肉消费的可能变动趋势进行了模拟分析。实证分析结果表明，在家牛肉消费需求的收入弹性从低收入组的0.169增长到高收入组0.671。不同收入增长情景的模拟分析结果表明，预计牛肉消费量在10年内将增长12.0％～38.8％，在15年内将增长18.6％～70.5％。本文的研究发现可以为决策者和其他利益相关者比如国内牛肉生产商和世界牛肉出口商提供有关未来牛肉需求变动趋势的定量依据，也说明了提高中国牛肉供给系统韧性的紧迫性。

This paper estimates a stochastic frontier function using a panel data set that includes 4 961 farmer households for the period of 2005-2009 to decompose the growth of grain production and the total factor productivity (TFP) growth at the farmer level. The empirical results show that the major contributor to the grain output growth for farmers is input growth and that its average contribution accounts for 60.92% of farmer’s grain production growth in the period of 2006-2009, whereas the average contributions sourced from TFP growth and residuals are only 17.30 and 21.78%, respectively. The growth of intermediate inputs is a top contributor with an average contribution of 44.46%, followed by the planted area (18.16%), investment in fixed assets (1.05%), and labor input (-2.75%), indicating that the contribution from the farmer’s input growth is mainly due to the growth of intermediate inputs and that the decline in labor inputs has become an obstacle for farmers in seeking grain output growth. Among the elements consisting of TFP growth, the contribution of technical progress is the largest (32.04%), followed by grain subsidies (8.55%), the average monthly temperature (4.26%), the average monthly precipitation (-0.88%), the adjusted scale effect (-5.66%), and growth in technical efficiency (-21.01%). In general, the contribution of climate factors and agricultural policy factor are positive and significant.