Impacts of household income on beef at-home consumption: Evidence from urban China

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(20)63582-1

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着居民收入的快速增长，中国牛肉消费量已从2000年的500万吨增长到了2019年的770万吨，但与猪肉和禽肉相比仍处于较低水平。在中国中等收入群体不断扩大的背景下，加深收入增长对牛肉消费影响的认识十分必要，这对于展望未来牛肉消费需求并为国内牛肉产业提供决策参考具有重要价值。本文基于国家统计局的32878户城镇居民家庭调查数据，运用反双曲正弦转换（IHS）的广义双栏模型估计了出城镇不同收入组家庭的牛肉需求收入弹性，并对未来牛肉消费的可能变动趋势进行了模拟分析。实证分析结果表明，在家牛肉消费需求的收入弹性从低收入组的0.169增长到高收入组0.671。不同收入增长情景的模拟分析结果表明，预计牛肉消费量在10年内将增长12.0％～38.8％，在15年内将增长18.6％～70.5％。本文的研究发现可以为决策者和其他利益相关者比如国内牛肉生产商和世界牛肉出口商提供有关未来牛肉需求变动趋势的定量依据，也说明了提高中国牛肉供给系统韧性的紧迫性。

Abstract:

Beef consumption in China has increased substantially from 5.0 million tons in 2000 to 7.7 million tons in 2019 thanks to rapid income growth, but still remains low compared to pork and poultry consumption. Improving the understanding about the impacts of household income on beef consumption in China is necessary to forecast future beef demand and inform the domestic beef industry, especially in the context of unprecedented expansion of middle income class in China. Based on survey data of 32 878 urban households collected by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, we employed the inverse hyperbolic sine (IHS) double-hurdle model to estimate income elasticities of beef demand across different income groups and simulated possible trends of future beef consumption of Chinese urban residents. The empirical results showed that the unconditional income elasticities of beef consumption at home vary between 0.169 for the low-income group and 0.671 for the high-income group. The simulated results indicated that beef consumption is expected to increase by 12.0 to 38.8% in 10 years and by 18.6 to 70.5% in 15 years under distinct income growth scenarios. Our findings provide practical insights for policy makers and other stakeholders about future beef demand, such as potential opportunities embedded in rising beef demand for domestic producers and world beef exporters as well as the urgency of improving the supply chain resilience of beef in China.

Key words: beef consumption , income elasticity , income growth , IHS double-hurdle model , urban China

. [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(6): 1701-1715.

ZHU Wen-bo, CHEN Yong-fu, ZHAO Jing, WU Bei-bei. Impacts of household income on beef at-home consumption: Evidence from urban China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(6): 1701-1715.

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