规模化经营对种植业碳排放的影响：来自中国的证据

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2023.08.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

减少农业碳排放对于中国实现2030年前碳达峰的目标具有重要意义。然而，农业向规模化经营转型将会给碳减排带来不确定性。本研究基于生命周期评价法核算我国种植业的碳排放量，并使用固定效应模型估计经营规模对种植业碳排放的影响，进一步通过情景分析预测经营规模变化驱动下的种植业碳排放未来变化。研究结果显示，随着经营规模的增加，中国种植业总碳排放量呈“倒U形”变化趋势，且主要归因于化肥投入带来的碳排放变化。预测结果表明，如果经营规模继续遵循历史趋势变化，农业规模化经营转型将使中国种植业碳达峰年份推迟到2048年。但从长远来看，规模化经营转型仍然有助于减少种植业碳排放。因此，在规模化经营转型初期，应加强化肥施用减量的环境规制政策力度以减少种植业碳排放，这一发现对于其他经营规模较小的发展中国家也同样具有借鉴意义。

Abstract:

Reducing agricultural carbon emissions is important to enable carbon emission peaking by 2030 in China. However, China’s transformation towards large-scale farming brings uncertainties to carbon emission reduction. This study quantifies the carbon emissions from cropping based on life cycle assessment and estimates the effects of farm size on carbon emissions using a fixed effects model. Furthermore, the variations of the carbon emissions from cropping driven by the changes in farm size in future years are projected through scenario analysis. Results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped change in total carbon emission from cropping as farm size increases, which is dominated by the changes in the carbon emission from fertilizer. Projections illustrate that large-scale farming transformation will postpone the peak year of total carbon emission from cropping until 2048 if the change in farm size follows a historical trend, although it is conducive to reducing total carbon emission in the long run. The findings indicate that environmental regulations to reduce fertilizer usages should be strengthened for carbon emission abatement in the early stage of large-scale farming transformation, which are also informative to other developing countries with small farm size.

Key words: farm size , carbon emission , agricultural transition

LI Ya-ling, YI Fu-jin, YUAN Chong-jun. 规模化经营对种植业碳排放的影响：来自中国的证据[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(10): 3209-3219.

LI Ya-ling, YI Fu-jin, YUAN Chong-jun. Influences of large-scale farming on carbon emissions from cropping: Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(10): 3209-3219.

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