中国耕地撂荒的时空动态及其对粮食安全的影响

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2025.09.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

耕地撂荒对粮食安全和农业可持续发展具有重要影响，但目前对中国耕地撂荒的动态变化过程及其潜在粮食安全影响的深入研究仍显不足。本研究基于1992-2022年中国土地利用轨迹数据，分析了耕地撂荒的时空模式、劳动力迁移对其产生的影响，以及由此带来的粮食安全潜在影响。研究发现，中国耕地撂荒经历了缓慢增长、快速增加、高位波动和逐步下降四个阶段，并于2016年达到3.98%的峰值。本研究识别出了三种主要的撂荒模式，并揭示了其空间分布特征。其中，长期性撂荒（单次撂荒时长≥10年）主要集中在自然条件较差的西南山区；偶发性撂荒（单次撂荒时长在3-9年间）则主要出现在经济发达的东部沿海地区；而渐进退化模式则出现在平原和山地的过渡地带。劳动力迁移与耕地撂荒率之间具有非线性关系，短距离（县域内）迁移有助于减少撂荒率，而中距离（省域内）迁移则显著增加了弃耕率。在撂荒耕地的耕作适宜性及其对潜在粮食损失的影响方面，57.50%的撂荒发生在低耕作适宜性土地上，但仍有42.50%则发生在高耕作适宜性耕地上。2010年中国潜在粮食损失达到峰值，其中低耕作适宜性土地和高耕作适宜性土地的损失分别约为1500万吨和880万吨。本研究的发现为制定区域差异化管理策略提供了数据支撑，旨在通过统筹考量土地适宜性、劳动力迁移模式和地方社会经济状况，以确保农业的可持续发展。

Abstract: Cropland abandonment substantially affects food security and agricultural sustainability, yet comprehensive analyses of its dynamics in rapidly developing regions remain limited. This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns, labor migration influences, and food security implications of cropland abandonment in China from 1992 to 2022. The results show that abandonment progressed through four phases: slow growth, rapid increase, high-level fluctuation peaking at 3.98% in 2016, and gradual decline. The research identified three primary abandonment patterns - single long-term (≥10 years), progressive degradation, and occasional (3–9 years) - with distinct spatial distributions. Long-term abandonment concentrates in the marginal agricultural areas of southwestern mountainous regions, while occasional abandonment predominates in the more economically developed eastern coastal areas, and progressive degradation patterns appear in transitional zones between plains and mountains. Labor migration influenced abandonment non-linearly with distinct regional thresholds. Short-distance (within-county) migration reduced abandonment rates, while medium-distance (within-province) migration significantly increased them. Although 57.50% of abandonment occurred on low-suitability land, 42.50% affected high-suitability cropland, resulting in peak potential grain losses of 15.0 and 8.8 million tonnes for low and high suitability land respectively in 2010. These findings support regionally differentiated land management strategies that integrate land suitability assessments, labor migration patterns, and local socioeconomic conditions to ensure agricultural sustainability.

Key words: cropland abandonment , land use trajectory , food security , agricultural land suitability , China

Ze Han, Wei Song, Chen Shen. 中国耕地撂荒的时空动态及其对粮食安全的影响[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(7): 3058-3037.

Ze Han, Wei Song, Chen Shen. Spatiotemporal dynamics and food security implications of cropland abandonment in China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2026, 25(7): 3058-3037.

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