Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(20)63244-0

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化严重影响农业生产，危及粮食安全。中国是世界第二大玉米生产国，也是最大的玉米消费国。分析气候变化对玉米单产的影响可以为国家和国际经济和政治提供有效的指导。面板模型无法确定数据集的组间异方差、截面相关和组内自相关，因此我们采用广义最小二乘模型（FGLS）来评估1979-2016年气候变化对中国玉米单产的影响。得到以下结果：（1）在1979-2016年期间，温度升高对中国玉米单产产生了负面影响。温度每升高1℃，玉米单产减少5.19 kg 667 m^-2（1.7％）。在此期间，降水仅略有增加，因此其对玉米单产的影响可以忽略不计。降水量每增加1 mm，玉米单产将增加0.043 kg 667 m^-2（0.014％），这是微不足道的。（2）气候变化对玉米单产的影响在空间上有所不同，在中国南部地区受到的影响更大。在该地区，温度每升高1℃，玉米单产下降7.49 kg 667 m^-2，而温度对中国北方玉米单产的影响不明显。降水量每增加1 mm，华南玉米单产增加0.013 kg 667 m^-2，而华北玉米增加0.066 kg 667 m^-2。（3）玉米作物对气候变化的适应力强，1990-2016年期间的中国南北部温度的边际效应均小于1979-2016年期间。

Abstract:

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results: (1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m^–2 (1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m^–2 (0.014%). (2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m^–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m^–2in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m^–2 in northern China. (3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was

Key words: climate change , maize yield , FGLS model , China

. [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(1): 289-299.

WU Jian-zhai, ZHANG Jing, GE Zhang-ming, XING Li-wei, HAN Shu-qing, SHEN Chen, KONG Fan-tao . Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(1): 289-299.

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