中国作物结构调整对生产力、营养和环境的多重作用：基于增长分解法

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2024.03.064

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 自2000年以来，中国的作物结构发生了重大变化，谷物、蔬菜和水果的比重提高，挤压了其他作物的种植。作物的土地生产力、营养供给和碳排放也因此发生了变化。如何将有限的土地在作物之间重新分配以实现农业食物系统的多重目标成为一个重要问题。本研究利用增长分解法探讨了2003年至2020年间土地生产力、营养供给增长和碳排放减少的源泉，并识别了作物结构变化在其中的作用。研究结果表明，作物本身的增长仍然是土地生产力和营养供给增长以及碳排放减少的主要驱动力。然而，结构调整在不同时期也发挥着不同的作用。2003年至2010年，作物结构调整增加了总热量供应，但降低了土地生产力，同时贡献了至少70%的碳排放总量的增长。2010-2015年，作物结构相对稳定，产生的影响较小。2015-2020年，作物结构调整发挥的作用更大，在提高土地生产力、微量营养素供给和减少碳排放等方面产生协同效应，促进了大约四分之一的土地生产力增长和减少了30%的碳排放量。为此，未来应综合考虑作物结构的多重影响来制定其调整战略，并努力实现协同效益，减少相互间的权衡效应。

Abstract:

China’s crop structure has undergone significant changes in the last two decades since 2000, with an increase in the share of cereals, vegetables, and fruit, squeezing out other crops. As a result, land productivity, nutrient supply, and carbon emissions have changed. How to reallocate limited farmland among crops to achieve the multiple goals of agrifood systems becomes an important issue. This study explores the sources of land productivity and nutrition supply growth and carbon emissions reduction, and identifies the multiple roles of crop structural change from 2003 to 2020 based on a decomposition analysis. The results reveal that the growth within crops is still the primary driver in land productivity and nutrition supply and the reduction in carbon emissions. However, structural change also plays various roles at different periods. From 2003 to 2010, crop structural change increased the total calorie supply but lowered land productivity and contributed at least 70% of the total growth of carbon emissions. The crop structure was relatively stable, and their effects were modest from 2010 to 2015. From 2015 to 2020, the crop structural change began to play a greater role and generate synergistic effects in improving land productivity, micronutrient supply, and reducing carbon emissions, contributing to approximately a quarter of the growth of land productivity and 30% of total carbon emissions reduction. These results suggest that strategies for crop structural change should comprehensively consider its multiple impacts, aiming to achieve co-benefits while minimizing trade-offs.

Key words: crop , structural change , land productivity , nutrition , carbon emissions

. 中国作物结构调整对生产力、营养和环境的多重作用：基于增长分解法[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2024, 23(5): 1763-1773.

Xiangyang Zhang, Yumei Zhang, Shenggen Fan.

The multiple roles of crop structural change in productivity, nutrition and environment in China: A decomposition analysis [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2024, 23(5): 1763-1773.

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