Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2024, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 1075-1086.DOI: 10.1016/j.jia.2023.10.032

• • 上一篇    

全球主要粮食贸易格局的时空演变

  

  • 收稿日期:2023-02-06 接受日期:2023-08-03 出版日期:2024-03-20 发布日期:2024-03-03

Temporal and spatial evolution of global major grain trade patterns

Ziqi Yin1, 2*, Jiaxuan Hu1*, Jing Zhang1, Xiangyang Zhou1, Lingling Li 3, 4, Jianzhai Wu1#   

  1. 1 Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

    2 Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038, China

    3 Zibo Agricultural Science Research Institute, Zibo 255000, China

    4 Zibo Institute for Digital Agriculture and Rural Research, Zibo 255000, China

  • Received:2023-02-06 Accepted:2023-08-03 Online:2024-03-20 Published:2024-03-03
  • About author:Ziqi Yin, E-mail: yinzq@istic.ac.cn; Jiaxuan Hu, E-mail: hujx99@163.com; #Correspondence Jianzhai Wu, E-mail: wujianzhai@caas.cn * These authors contributed equally to this study.
  • Supported by:
    This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42271313), the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Innovation Project (CAAS-ASTIP-2021-AII), the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund, China (JBYW-AII-2022-06, JBYW-AII-2022-40).  

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摘要：

日益复杂多变的国际形势对全球粮食供给安全产生了深刻的影响。本研究采用复杂网络分析模型，从网络拓扑、中心排名、社团结构等方面对1990-2020年全球主要粮食贸易的演变规律及发展趋势进行分析。结果表明：（1）1990-2020年全球主要粮食贸易网络规模不断扩大，且逐渐呈现出多元、均衡的特征。美国、加拿大、中国、巴西在考察期中始终是网络核心节点，2020年乌克兰地位迅速提升，成为粮食贸易第二大国。粮食出口国家主要分布在亚洲、美洲与欧洲，进口国家主要分布在亚洲、非洲与欧洲。（2）网络中高中心性国家明显增多，均有较高的出口能力，且大多具有耕地资源丰富，气候适宜等自然优势。（3）全球主要粮食贸易网络划分为四个社团，美洲-欧洲社团是目前全球分布最广、规模最大的粮食贸易团体，地理邻近是社团格局形成的因素之一。因此，全球应进一步发展并优化现有贸易模式、促进粮食贸易网络多极化，各国家地区应树立未来共同体的全球愿景，积极参与全球粮食贸易安全治理和体制改革，扩大与其他国家的贸易联系，优化进出口政策，以降低贸易风险。

Abstract: The complex and volatile international landscape has significantly impacted global grain supply security.  This study uses a complex network analysis model to examine the evolution and trends of the global major grain trade from 1990 to 2020, focusing on network topology, centrality ranking, and community structure.  There are three major findings.  First, the global major grain trade network has expanded in scale, with a growing emphasis on diversification and balance.  During the study period, the United States, Canada, China, and Brazil were the core nodes of the network.  Grain-exporting countries were mainly situated in Asia, the Americas, and Europe, and importing countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe.  Second, a significant increase in the number of high centrality countries with high export capacity occurred, benefiting from natural advantages such as fertile land and favorable climates.  Third, the main global grain trade network is divided into four communities, with the Americas-Europe community being the largest and most widespread.  The formation of the community pattern was influenced by geographic proximity, driven by the core exporting countries.  Therefore, the world needs to enhance the existing trade model, promote the multi-polarization of the grain trade network, and establish a global vision for the future community.  Countries and regions should participate actively in global grain trade security governance and institutional reform, expand trade links with other countries, and optimize import and export policies to reduce trade risks.

Key words: Grain trade ,  Pattern evolution ,  Complex network