利用MaxEnt生态位模型预测不同气候场景下象耳豆根结线虫在全球的潜在适生区分布

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2023.06.022

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

象耳豆根结线虫是一类在全球范围内发生且危害多种作物的重要病原线虫，其主要分布于全球的热带和亚热带地区。然而，目前关于影响其分布的主要环境因子以及未来潜在分布区域变化的研究还未有报道。在本研究中，我们根据象耳豆根结线虫在全球不同地区发生报道的相关数据，利用Maximum Entropy（MaxEnt）模型对这类根结线虫在中国及全球的潜在地域分布进行了预测。同时，我们利用3套气候模式（BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5和CNRM-CM6-1）对象耳豆根结线虫到本世纪50年代和90年代的潜在分布区域进行了预测，对其在不同气候条件下潜在分布区域的变化进行了分析。结果显示，象耳豆根结线虫的最佳适生区域为亚洲、南美洲、北美洲和非洲北纬30度到南纬30度之间的区域。Bio16（全年最湿润季度的降水量）、bio10（全年最热季度的平均气温）以及bio11（全年最冷季度的平均气温）是影响象耳豆根结线虫潜在分布最重要的环境因子。进一步的预测结果显示，在未来的气候条件下，全球象耳豆根结线虫的最佳适生区域将不断向高纬度地区扩展。该结果将为象耳豆根结线虫的防控提供理论基础。

Abstract:

In recent years, Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas. However, the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear. Under the current climate scenario, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M. enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with the occurrence data of this species. Furthermore, the potential distributions of M. enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1) for the periods 2050s and 2090s. Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions. The results showed that highly suitable regions for M. enterolobii were concentrated in Africa, South America, Asia, and North America between latitudes 30° S to 30° N. Bio16 (precipitation of the wettest quarter), bio10 (mean temperature of the warmest quarter), and bio11 (mean temperature of the coldest quarter) were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M. enterolobii. In addition, the potential suitable areas for M. enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios. This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.

Key words: Meloidogyne enterolobii , species distribution model , MaxEnt , Climate change , future climate scenarios , centroid change

PAN Song, PENG De-liang, LI Ying-mei, CHEN Zhi-jie, ZHAI Ying-yan, LIU Chen, HONG Bo. 利用MaxEnt生态位模型预测不同气候场景下象耳豆根结线虫在全球的潜在适生区分布[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(7): 2138-2150.

PAN Song, PENG De-liang, LI Ying-mei, CHEN Zhi-jie, ZHAI Ying-yan, LIU Chen, HONG Bo. Potential global distribution of the guava root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(7): 2138-2150.

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