JIA-2022-1385 水资源调配与农业生产：来自中国的证据

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2023.03.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源调配是一个缓解水资源短缺问题的潜在途径。众所周知，中国的南水北调工程是世界上最大的水资源调配工程，该工程将水资源从南方输送到了北方。本文利用中国黄淮海平原2000-2020年的地级市面板数据，采用双重差分法实证分析了南水北调对农业生产的影响。估算结果表明，南水北调可以显著提高农业增加值。在考虑混淆政策、替代变量、子样本估计和更换估计方法时，基准模型的估计结果依然稳健。本文的实证分析进一步发现，潜在的作用机制可能是南水北调增加了经济作物，但减少了粮食作物。异质性分析表明，在平均气温较高或农田生产潜力较大的地区，南水北调对农业增加值的影响较小，而在日照时间长或坡度大的地区，南水北调对农业增加值的影响较大。由于粮食作物附加值低，为进一步保障粮食安全，政府需要通过粮食生产的供水补贴来保障粮食安全。

Abstract:

Water diversion can alleviate water shortages caused by the uneven distribution of water resources. China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWD) is the largest water diversion project worldwide. Based on the prefecture-level data of China’s Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2020, this study employs an empirical strategy of Differences-in-Differences (DID) to analyze the impact of SNWD on agricultural production. The results show that SNWD has significantly increased agricultural production, measured by the agricultural value added. The estimated results of the benchmark model remain robust when the contemporaneous policy is addressed, an alternative outcome is used, subsamples are estimated, and alternative estimation techniques are employed. This study argues that the potential impact mechanism may be that SNWD significantly increases the acreage for cash crops but reduces that for grain crops. Heterogeneity analysis shows that in prefectures with high temperature or land potential, SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively low. In contrast, in areas with prolonged sunshine or high slopes, SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively large. Given the low added value of grain crops, the government should consider strengthening food security by subsidizing water supply to sustain grain production.

Key words: South-to-North Water Diversion, agricultural production , Differences-in-Differences , China

YANG Rui, XU Hang. JIA-2022-1385 水资源调配与农业生产：来自中国的证据[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(4): 1244-1257.

YANG Rui, XU Hang. Water diversion and agricultural production: Evidence from China[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(4): 1244-1257.

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JIA-2022-1385 水资源调配与农业生产：来自中国的证据

Water diversion and agricultural production: Evidence from China

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