粮食安全和低碳能否同时实现？—灌区马铃薯和玉米种植碳足迹影响机制的实证分析

doi:10.1016/j.jia.2023.02.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

1950年以来，全球灌溉农业的面积增长了两倍。灌溉农业对于粮食安全意义重大，仅占全球耕地面积的20%，却提供了全球40%的粮食产量。灌溉农业在保障安全的同时，也对全球气候变化产生了重要影响。以往的大多数研究从工程学视角利用生命周期评估法计算灌溉农业的碳足迹，而基于微观农户视角的碳足迹驱动机理研究较为缺乏。本文基于生命周期评估法与计量经济学模型(如多线性回归和结构方程模型)相结合的方法，通过调查2019年-2020年中国西南地区6个村庄(2个灌溉农业试点村和4个周边村庄作为对照)345个农户的852份玉米和马铃薯生产情况，分析了灌溉改革试点地区农作物种植碳足迹的影响因素和内在影响机制。结果显示，灌溉农业试验区的作物碳足迹显著低于非试验区。灌溉改革主要通过工程效应(实施田间灌溉渠道)、技术效应(提高新灌溉技术的采用)、管理效应(适当的灌溉运行和维护)和产量效应(灌溉改革促进了产量的提高)四个中介路径对作物碳足迹产生影响。其中，除工程效应外，其它三个中介效应都对作物种植碳足迹产生了抑制作用。其中，产量效应对降低碳足迹的影响最大，其次是管理效应，最后是技术效应。此外，研究发现种植方式、农户的个体特征和土地质量对作物碳足迹均有显著影响。这项研究对于理解农业生产中粮食安全与气候之间的关系具有重要的政策意义。

Abstract: Irrigated agriculture has tripled since 1950, accounting for 20% of the global arable land and 40% of food production. Irrigated agriculture increases food security yet has controversial implications for global climate change. Most previous studies have calculated carbon emissions and their composition in irrigated areas using the engineering approach to life-cycle assessment. By combining life cycle assessment (LCA)-based carbon emissions accounting with econometric models such as multiple linear regression and structural equation modeling (SEM), we conducted an interdisciplinary study to identify the influencing factors and internal mechanisms of the carbon footprint (CFP) of smallholder crop cultivation on irrigation reform pilot areas. To this end, we investigated corn and potato production data in the 2019–2020 crop years for 852 plots of 345 rural households in six villages (two irrigation agriculture pilot villages and four surrounding villages as controls) in Southwest China. The crop CFP in the irrigation agriculture pilot areas was significantly lower than in non-reform areas. Irrigation reforms mainly impacted the crop CFP through four intermediary effects: the project (implementation of field irrigation channels), technology (improving adoption of new irrigation technologies), management (proper irrigation operation and maintenance), and yield effects. All effects inhibited the CFP, except for the project effect that promotes carbon emissions. Among them, yield increase has the greatest impact on reducing CFP, followed by management and technology effects. Furthermore, planting practices, individual characteristics, and plot quality significantly impacted the crop CFP. This study has policy implications for understanding the food security–climate nexus in the food production industry.

Key words: food security–climate nexus , irrigated agriculture , carbon footprint , smallholder farmer , path analysis

NIU Kun-yu, GUO Hui, LIU Jing. 粮食安全和低碳能否同时实现？—灌区马铃薯和玉米种植碳足迹影响机制的实证分析[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(4): 1230-1243.

NIU Kunyu, GUO Hui, LIU Jing. Can food security and low carbon be achieved simultaneously? —An empirical analysis of the mechanisms influencing the carbon footprint of potato and corn cultivation in irrigation areas[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2023, 22(4): 1230-1243.

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