Driving factors of direct greenhouse gas emissions from China’s pig industry from 1976 to 2016

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(20)63425-6

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

养殖业是温室气体排放的重要来源，占到全球温室气体排放的14.5%，中国养殖业，尤其是生猪产业温室气体排放占到了其中相当大的比例。我们利用Kaya恒等原理和对数平均迪氏指数分解法（LMDI）将1976-2016年中国生猪养殖过程中因肠道发酵和粪便管理引起的温室气体排放因素分解：（1）技术进步因素，（2）养殖业内部结构调整因素，（3）农业生产结构调整因素，（4）生活水平改善因素以及（5）人口增长因素等。研究显示，在观测期间中国生猪养殖所产生的温室气体排放增长了1600万吨二氧化碳当量。因素分解研究的结果表明农业经济结构调整因素，经济福利增长因素以及人口增长因素分别对猪肉产量的温室气体排放贡献分别为2300，4100和1300万吨二氧化碳当量。技术进步和养殖业内部结构的调整因素分别促进养殖业减少温室气体排放5100和1100万吨二氧化碳当量。进一步的技术进步和经济结构优化将是中国生猪养殖领域减少温室气体排放的重要途径，技术变革对于生猪产业温室气体减排减排具有非常大的潜力。

Abstract:

Livestock cultivation is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for 14.5% of the total anthropogenic emissions. China is responsible for a considerable share of the global livestock emissions, particularly caused by pork production. We used the Kaya identity and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to decompose the national annual GHG emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management in pig farming in China from 1976 to 2016. We decomposed the sources of the emissions into five driving factors: (1) technological progress (e.g., feed improvement); (2) structural adjustment in the livestock sector; (3) structural adjustment in agriculture; (4) affluence; and (5) population growth. The results showed that the net GHG emissions from the pig sector in China increased 16 million tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂eq) during the study period. The decomposition analysis revealed that structural adjustment in agriculture, growing affluence, and population growth contributed to an increase of the GHG emissions of pork production by 23, 41, and 13 Mt CO₂eq, respectively. The technological progress and structural changes in animal husbandry mitigated emissions by –51 and –11 Mt CO₂eq, respectively. Further technological progress in pig production and optimizing the economic structures are critical for further reducing GHG emissions in China’s pig industry. Our results highlight the dominant role of technological changes for emission reductions in the pig farming.

Key words: livestock production , carbon emissions , manure management , pig farming , LMDI decomposition

. [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(1): 319-329.

DAI Xiao-wen, Zhanli SUN, Daniel MÜLLER. Driving factors of direct greenhouse gas emissions from China’s pig industry from 1976 to 2016[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(1): 319-329.

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