Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(20)63273-7

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱是造成冬小麦减产的最主要的自然灾害之一，然而气候变化背景下干旱发生的机制及其时空格局仍不明确。本研究基于华北平原1958-2015年气象站点的长时间序列气象数据，采用敏感性分析，M-K检测以及斜率估计等方法，分析了不同气象因素对冬小麦干旱风险的影响机制。结果表明，近60年来冬小麦生育期内气象因子发生了显著的变化，导致冬小麦面临着严重的干旱风险（生长季内水分亏缺量达到350 mm），尤其在拔节-抽穗和抽穗-成熟期这两个产量形成的关键时期面临的干旱威胁更加严重。冬小麦生育阶段的干旱风险和气象因子呈现较大的时空分异特征。尽管降水对于干旱风险格局起主导作用，但是在冬小麦生长的关键阶段，气温升高和相对湿度降低等气象因素的变化都将加剧其干旱风险。过去几十年中近90%的气象站点温度都呈明显的上升趋势，如果未来气温持续升高，冬小麦的水分亏缺和干旱风险将会进一步加剧。研究结果可为作物生产有效适应未来气候变化和保障区域粮食安全提供基础支撑。

Abstract: Drought is a major natural disaster causing crop yield losses, while its occurrence mechanism and spatiotemporal variations in a changing climate are still not clear. Based on a long-term climatic dataset (during 1958–2015) from weather stations in the North China Plain (NCP), the influencing mechanism of various climatic factors on drought risk of winter wheat was quantified by using sensitivity analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test and slope estimation. The results indicated that climatic factors have changed considerably over the past six decades in the growth season of winter wheat. As a result, winter wheat suffered from severe droughts (with 350 mm of water deficit during its growth season), particularly at the jointing–heading and heading–mature stages, which were critical to crop yield formation. There were large spatial and temporal variations in drought risk and climatic change factors at different growth stages of winter wheat. Despite precipitation playing a vital role in determining the spatiotemporal patterns of drought risk, high temperature and low humidity along with other climatic factors at key growth stages of winter wheat aggravated drought risk. Particularly, temperature at nearly 90% weather stations showed a notablely upward trend, which exacerbated water deficit and drought risk of winter wheat. Given the complexity and high uncertainty of climate change, these findings provide important information for adapting crop production to future climate change and accompanied droughts while ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability.

Key words: climate change , winter wheat , drought risk , spatiotemporal variations , food security

. [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(10): 2601-2612.

ZHANG Li, CHU Qing-quan, JIANG Yu-lin, CHEN Fu, LEI Yong-deng. Impacts of climate change on drought risk of winter wheat in the North China Plain[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2021, 20(10): 2601-2612.

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