The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants

doi:10.1016/S2095-3119(18)62084-2

Journal of Integrative Agriculture ›› 2018, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (10): 2356-2367.DOI: 10.1016/S2095-3119(18)62084-2

• 论文 • 上一篇

收稿日期:2017-12-08 出版日期:2018-10-01 发布日期:2018-09-29

The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants

SUN Zhi-lu, LI Xian-de

Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China

Received:2017-12-08 Online:2018-10-01 Published:2018-09-29
Contact: Correspondence LI Xian-de, Tel: +86-10-82106160, Fax: +86-10-62187545, E-mail: gjmy6160@caas.cn
About author:SUN Zhi-lu, Tel: +86-10-82109079, Fax: +86-10-62187545,E-mail: sunzhilu@caas.cn;
Supported by:
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71703157), the National Statistical Science Research Program of China (2016LY29), and the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,China (ASTIP-IAED-2018-06).

摘要/Abstract

Abstract: How do Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) evolve? And what factors affected the evolution pattern? This study measures the trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN by utilizing the 2000–2015 Harmonized System’s six-digit agricultural trade data, and further analyzes their determinants by developing an augmented gravity model of international trade. The results indicate that, the main growth source of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN has shifted from the extensive margin before the formal establishment of CAFTA (China–ASEAN Free Trade Area) in 2010 to the intensive margin since the formal establishment of CAFTA, but changes in Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN have always mainly depended on the intensive margin. Since the formal establishment of CAFTA, the evolution pattern of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN has shifted from “more varieties, low price, and small quantity” to “less varieties, high price, and large quantity”. Relative economic scale, relative population scale, capacity of agricultural export, trade integration, global financial crisis, and common border significantly affect the trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN.

Key words: China , agricultural product , ASEAN , trade margins

. [J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2018, 17(10): 2356-2367.

SUN Zhi-lu, LI Xian-de. The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2018, 17(10): 2356-2367.

参考文献

Amiti M, Freund C. 2010. The anatomy of China’s export growth. In: Feenstra R C, Wei S, eds., China’s Growing Role in World Trade. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Anderson J E. 2011. The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3, 133–160.
Armington P S. 1969. A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 16, 159–178.
Baier S L, Bergstrand J H, Feng M. 2014. Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 93, 339–350.
Beck N, Katz J N. 1995. What to do (and not to do) with time-series-cross-section data in comparative politics. American Political Science Review, 89, 634–647.
Chaney T. 2008. Distorted gravity: The intensive and extensive margins of international trade. American Economic Review, 98, 1707–1721.
Chen K, Tsai M, Lin C, Tu C. 2009. Impact of cross-strait trade liberalization: A computable general equilibrium analysis. China & World Economy, 17, 106–122.
Cheong J, Kwak D W, Tang K K. 2016. The distance effects on the intensive and extensive margins of trade over time. Empirical Economics, 50, 253–278.
Feenstra R C. 1994. New product varieties and the measurement of international prices. American Economic Review, 84, 157–177.
Feenstra R C, Ma H. 2014. Trade facilitation and the extensive margin of exports. Japanese Economic Review, 65, 158–177.
Felbermayr G, Kohler W. 2006. Exploring the intensive and extensive margins of world trade. Review of World Economics, 142, 642–674.
Florensa L M, Marquezramos L, Recalde M L. 2015. The effect of economic integration and institutional quality of trade agreements on trade margins: Evidence for Latin America. Review of World Economics, 151, 329–351.
Geng X H, Zhang X H, Zhou Y H. 2014. The dual marginal structure of China’s agricultural export and its influencing factors. Chinese Rural Economy, 30, 36–50. (in Chinese)
Gong T Y, Xin X, Pan W Q. 2012. The effect of the change of trade barrier on agricultural trade between China and ASEAN: Measurement and decomposition based on border effect. Chinese Rural Economy, 28, 64–74. (in Chinese)
Helpman E, Krugman P R. 1985. Market Structure and Foreign Trade. MIT Press, Cambridge.
Helpman E, Melitz M J, Rubinstein Y. 2008. Estimating trade flows: Trading partners and trading volumes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123, 441–487.
Hummels D, Klenow P J. 2005. The variety and quality of a nation’s exports. American Economic Review, 95, 704–723.
Jia W, Qu S X. 2012. An empirical study on the agricultural export growth between China’s each provinces and ASEAN. Chinese Rural Economy, 28, 25–34. (in Chinese)
Johnson H. 1955. Economics expansion and international trade. The Manchester School, 23, 95–112.
Kancs A. 2007. Trade growth in a heterogeneous firm model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe. The World Economy, 30, 1139–1169.
Kehoe T J, Ruhl K J. 2013. How important is the new goods margin in international trade? Journal of Political Economy, 121, 358–392.
Krautheim S. 2012. Heterogeneous firms, exporter networks and the effect of distance on international trade. Journal of International Economics, 87, 27–35.
Krugman P R. 1980. Scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade. American Economic Review, 70, 950–959.
Lee C, Fukunaga Y. 2014. ASEAN regional cooperation on competition policy. Journal of Asian Economics, 35, 77–91.
Li T, Qiu L D, Xue Y. 2016. Understanding China’s foreign trade policy: A literature review. Frontiers of Economics in China, 11, 410–438.
Liapis P S, Fournier A. 2008. How important is the extensive margin in agricultural trade. 2008 International Trade Research Consortium Winter Meeting. Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. December 7–9, 2008.
Mart?ínez-Zarzoso I, Nowak-Lehmann D F, Horsewood N. 2009. Are regional trading agreements bene?cial? Static and dynamic panel gravity models. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20, 46–65.
Melitz M J. 2003. The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71, 1695–1725.
MOFCOM (Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China). 2004. Agreement on the trade in goods of the framework agreement on comprehensive economic co-operation between the People’s Republic of China and the ASEAN. [2017-11-18]. http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/dongmeng/annex/hwmyxieyi_en.pdf
MOFCOM (Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China). 2017. Monthly statistic report of China’s import and export: Agricultural products, December 2016. [2017-11-18]. http://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zt_ncp/table/2016_12.pdf (in Chinese)
Newton I. 1686. Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica. Encyclopædia Britannica, London.
Paladini S, Cheng J Y. 2015. The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area: A success or a failure? A preliminary evaluation based on econometric evidence. Journal of Comparative Asian Development, 14, 171–199.
Pöyhönen P A. 1963. A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90, 93–100.
Qiu H, Yang J, Huang J, Chen R. 2007. Impact of China–ASEAN Free Trade Area on China’s international agricultural trade and its regional development. China & World Economy, 15, 77–90.
Romer P. 1994. New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions. Journal of Development Economics, 43, 5–38.
Shi B Z. 2010. The three margins of China’s export growth. China Economic Quarterly, 9, 1311–1330. (in Chinese)
Tinbergen J. 1962. Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. Twentieth Century Fund, New York.
Tian D, Hu N, Wang X, Huang L. 2016. Trade margins, quality upgrading, and China’s agri-food export growth. China Agricultural Economic Review, 8, 277–298.
Yang S, Martinez-Zarzoso I. 2014. A panel data analysis of trade creation and trade diversion effects: The case of ASEAN–China Free Trade Area. China Economic Review, 29, 138–151.
Zhang X H, Zhou Y H, Geng X H, Tian X. 2017. The intensive and extensive margins of China’s agricultural trade. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 65, 431–451.
Zhang Y Q, Zhou Y H, Zhang X H. 2014. Dual marginal gap of China’s agricultural exports to developed and underdeveloped countries. Journal of International Trade, 40, 43–50. (in Chinese)
Zhao Y L, Lin G H. 2008. A study on the flow and potentiality of bilateral agricultural trade between China and ASEAN: Based on trade gravity model. Journal of International Trade, 34, 69–77. (in Chinese)

The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics