青藏高原高寒区青稞光温生产潜力和产量差时空分布特征及其对气候变化的响应

弓开元,何亮,邬定荣,吕昌河,李俊,周文彬,杜军,于强

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Photo-Temperature Potential Productivity and Yield Gap of Highland Barley and Its Response to Climate Change in the Cold Regions of the Tibetan Plateau

KaiYuan GONG,Liang HE,DingRong WU,ChangHe LÜ,Jun LI,WenBin ZHOU,Jun DU,Qiang YU

表4 不同站点的青稞光温生产潜力变化与气候因子的逐步回归方程

Table 4 Stepwise regression equation between photo-temperature potential productivity change of highland barley and climatic factors in difference stations

站点 Station 回归方程 Stepwise regression equation F R2 MAE RMSE GTA ΔPY=31.78+2.37ΔPrec+1.60ΔRad 9.90 0.35 412.72 509.26 GN ΔPY=11.74-597.29ΔTmax+2.99ΔRad+5.37ΔAe 9.52 0.44 394.69 510.40 MHA ΔPY=14.15-672.45ΔTmax-428.09ΔTmin+1.11ΔRad+10.10ΔAe 9.59 0.52 377.84 486.23 LZ ΔPY=-17.52+270.49ΔTmax-1.90ΔAe 1.39 0.07 260.90 322.67 SN ΔPY=36.93-890.86ΔTmax+773.67ΔTmin+3.95ΔRad 2.82 0.20 620.33 759.47 RKZ ΔPY=-0.86+3.87ΔRad 18.46 0.33 542.49 416.02 LS ΔPY=-18.25+2.36ΔRad-3.68ΔAe 4.55 0.35 329.92 416.02