柑橘轮斑病的适生区预测及风险分析
徐永红,陈力,唐松,丁德宽,杨宇衡

Prediction of Suitable Area and Risk Analysis for Citrus Target Spot
XU YongHong,CHEN Li,TANG Song,DING DeKuan,YANG YuHeng
表3 柑橘轮斑病风险性定量分析评判指标赋分表
Table 3 Index score table for risk analysis of citrus target spot
评价指标
Evaluation index
评判标准
Criterion of evaluation
赋分原因
Reason for scoring
赋分值
Score
P1 分布面积
Distribution area
0 P1=3 在国内分布最大占比0.3%
The largest domestic distribution accounts for 0.3%
P1=2
0-20% P1=2
20%-50% P1=1
>50% P1=0
P21 产量或品质损失
Loss of yield or quality
>50% P21=3 柑橘轮斑病造成的产量损失难以统计,用其危害程度进行间接评价
The yield loss caused by citrus target spot is difficult to count, and its damage is used for indirect evaluation
P21=3
20%-50% P21=2
1%-5% P21=1
0 P21=0
P22 可传带检疫性有害生物数量
Number of quarantine pests that can be carried
≥3 P22=3 不传带任何检疫性有害生物
Does not carry any quarantine pest
P22=0
2 P22=2
1 P22=1
0 P22=0
P31 受害栽培寄主
Variety of damaged hosts
≥10 P31=3 目前受该病原侵染的栽培寄主仅限柑橘
The host currently infected by the pathogen is only citrus
P31=1
5-9 P31=2
1-4 P31=1
0 P31=0
P32 寄主种植面积
Planting area of damaged host
>35×105 hm2 P32=3 城固、万州、安康柑橘总种植面积4.47×104 hm2
The citrus planting in the affected area is 4.47×104 hm2
P32=1
(15—35)×105 hm2 P32=2
<15×105 hm2 P32=1
0 P32=0
P33 寄主应用价值、出口创汇等方面
Host economic values
P33=3,2,1,0 柑橘是国际贸易第一大水果,是重要的经济作物
Citrus is the largest fruit in international trade and an important cash crop
P33=3
P41 经常被截获Often intercepted P41=3 截至目前,柑橘轮斑病从未被截获
Citrus target spot has never been intercepted until now
P41=1
偶尔被截获Occasionally intercepted P41=2
从未被截获或历史上只截获几次
Never intercepted or intercepted only a few times
P41=1
P42 存活率
Survival rate
>40% P42=3 运输过程中柑橘轮斑病不会被破坏,仍继续存在
Citrus target spot cannot be destroyed during transportation
P42=3
10%-40% P42=2
0-10% P42=1
0 P42=0
P43 适生区范围
Suitable area
>50% P43=3 适生区约占全国总面积的12.19%,即在全国12.19%的地区适宜生存
Suitable area accounts for 12.19% of total area of China
P43=1
25%-50% P43=2
0-25% P43=1
0 P43=0
P44 传播力
Transmissibility
强Strong P44=3 自2006年在城固发病后,10年左右才传至万州,认为其传播力很弱
Citrus target spot has only spread from Chenggu to Wanzhou in about 10 years, and it is believed that its spread is very weak
P44=1
中Medium P44=2
弱Weak P44=1
P51 检验鉴定方法
Identification method
可靠性低,耗时长
Low reliability and time-consuming
P51=3 目前柑橘轮斑病菌的鉴定检验耗时较长,采用鉴定技术复杂
The identification of the pathogen takes a long time and the identification technology is complicated
P51=2
非常可靠且快速简便
High reliability and time-saving
P51=0
介于之间Medium P51=2,1
P52 除害率
Removal rate
几乎完全不能除害
Almost impossible to eliminate
P52=3 病害一经发生,尽管采取防治除害方法,病害依旧有部分肆意,不能完全消除病害
Once the disease occurs, the disease cannot be completely eliminated
P52=2
<50% P52=2
50%-100% P52=1
100% P52=0
P53 防治效果
Control effect
差Poor P53=3 防治措施采取后,见效甚微
Control measures have little effect
P53=3
显著Significant P53=0
介于之间Medium P53=2,1