农产品监测预警模型集群构建理论方法与应用

许世卫,邸佳颖,李干琼,庄家煜

The Methodology and Application of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Model Cluster

XU ShiWei,DI JiaYing,LI GanQiong,ZHUANG JiaYu

表4 模型集群的主要变量参数及求解

Table 4 Main variable parameters of model cluster and its solution

模型主要变量 Model variable f(x) 模型方程变量系数的求解方法 Method for solving variable coefficients of model equation 产量 Production quantity (QP) 作物单产 Yield 气象单产 Meteorological yield 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 投入单产 Input yield 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 管理单产 Management yield 历史数据、专家经验确定各系数 Historical data and expert experience determine the coefficients 综合单产 Comprehensive yield 专家人工设置和智能训练赋值各单产权重 Expert manual setting and intelligent training assign the weight of each yield 收获面积 Harvested area 价格竞争面积 Price competition area 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 调查面积 Survey area 调查数据 survey data 遥感面积 Remote sensing area 监测数据 Monitoring data 综合面积 Comprehensive area 专家人工设置和智能训练赋值各面积权重 Expert manual setting and intelligent training assign the weight of each area 畜禽产量 Livestock production 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 消费量 Consumption quantity (QC) 食用（口粮）消费 Food use consumption 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 工业消费 Industrial consumption 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 饲用消费 Feed use consumption 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 种用消费 Seed use consumption 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 损耗 Loss 历史数据建立回归方程求解各系数 Use historical data to establish regression equations to solve coefficients 贸易量 Trade( T ) 进出口量 Import and export 历史数据及专家预测 Historical data and expert forecasts 价格 Price( P ) 均衡价格指数 Equilibrium price index 局部均衡模型求解 Local equilibrium model solution