农产品监测预警模型集群构建理论方法与应用
许世卫,邸佳颖,李干琼,庄家煜

The Methodology and Application of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Model Cluster
XU ShiWei,DI JiaYing,LI GanQiong,ZHUANG JiaYu
表2 模型集群生产、消费、价格和贸易通用模型形式及变量说明
Table 2 Cluster model production, consumption, price and trade general model form and variable description
模型形式
Model form
主要变量
Main variable
主要参数
Main parameter
生产量
Production quantity (QP)
QPcrop = f (Ym, Yi, Yma, HA) QPcrop:作物产量;Ym:气象单产;Yi:投入单产;Yma:管理单产;As:收获面积
QPcrop: Production quantity of crop; Ym: Meteorological yield; Yi: Input yield; Yma: Management yield; HA: Harvested area
Ym=δ(T, S, P) T:温度;S:日照时间;P:降水量
T: Temperature; S: Sunshine duration; P: Precipitation.
δ:气象因子系数
δ: Meteorological factor coefficient
Yi=θ(CE, FE, FI) CE:成本收益因子;FE:费用和用工因素;FI:肥料投入因素
CE: Cost-benefit factors; FE: Cost and employment factors; FI: Fertilizer input factors
θ:投入因子弹性系数
θ: Input factor elastic coefficient
Yma =μ(Pol, Man) Pol:政策指数;Man:政策因素
Pol: Policy indexs; Man: Policy factors
μ:政策系数
μ: Policy coefficient
HA=ε(P, Psubs) P:作物价格指数;Psubs:竞争作物价格指数
P: Crop price index; Psubs: Competitive crop price index
ε:竞品价格指数系数
ε: Competitive price index coefficient
QPanimal = f(YLD × SL × CR) YLD:单只动物出栏活重;SL:动物出栏数量;CR:动物出栏率
YLD: Single animal slaughter live weight; SL: Number of animals slaughtered; CR: Animal slaughter rate
畜禽产量系数
Livestock production coefficient
消费量Consumption quantity (QC) QC = g(FC, IC, FEC, SEC, W) FC:食用(口粮)消费;IC:工业消费;FEC:饲用消费;SEC:种用消费;W:损耗
FC: Food use consumption; IC: Industrial consumption; FEC: Feed use consumption; SEC: Seed use consumption; W: Wastage
各消费细项系数
Coefficients of various consumption items
贸易量
Trade (T)
IM = h(QP, QC)
EX = f( QP, QC)
QP:产量;QC:消费量
QP: Production quantity; QC: Consumption quantity
产量、消费量、价格影响系数
Coefficient of influence of production, consumption, prices
价格
Price (P)
$\left\{ \overrightarrow{P}\left| \forall {{S}_{i}}(\overrightarrow{P}) \right.-{{D}_{i}}(\overrightarrow{P})=0 \right\}$ $\overrightarrow{P}$:均衡价格向量;Si:供给端价格向量;Di:需求端价格向量
$\overrightarrow{P}$: Equilibrium price vector; Si: Supply price vector; Di: Demand price vector
多产品均衡价格指数
Multi-product equilibrium price Index