农产品监测预警模型集群构建理论方法与应用
许世卫,邸佳颖,李干琼,庄家煜

The Methodology and Application of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Model Cluster
XU ShiWei,DI JiaYing,LI GanQiong,ZHUANG JiaYu
表1 农产品监测预警模型集群构建需考虑的主要影响因素
Table 1 Main influencing factors to be considered in the construction of agricultural product monitoring and early warning model cluster
模型变量 Model variable f(x) 影响因素Influence factor(xi)
生产量
Production quantity
(QP)
作物单产
Yield
气象单产
Meteorological yield
温度、日照时数、降水量等
Temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation, etc.
投入单产
Input yield
成本收益情况、费用和用工情况、化肥种子投入、科技等
Cost-benefit situation, expenses and employment situation, fertilizer and seed input, technology, etc.
管理单产
Management yield
投入政策、支持政策、保护政策、科技政策等
Input policy, support policy, protection policy, science and technology policy, etc.
收获面积
Harvested area
价格竞争面积
Price competition area
上一期投入产出效益、其他竞争农产品上一期投入产出效益、上一期种植面积等
Input-output benefits of the previous period, input-output benefits of the previous period of other competitive agricultural products, planting area of the previous period, etc.
调查面积
Survey area
调查问卷等
Questionnaire, etc.
遥感面积
Remote sensing area
NVDI植被指数、物候期等
NVDI vegetation index, phenology, etc.
畜禽产量
Livestock production
生育期因素、效益成本、管理因素、调查因素等
Fertility factors, benefit costs, management factors, survey factors, etc.
消费量
Consumption quantity (QC)
食用(口粮)消费
Food use consumption
人口数、人均收入、均衡价格等
Population, per capita income, equilibrium price, etc.
工业消费
Industrial consumption
生产价格、人均国民生产总值和工业增长率等
Production prices, GDP per capita, industrial growth rate, etc.
饲用消费
Feed consumption
畜产品产量、料肉比、饲料价格、投入品和产出品的价格
Production of livestock products, feed-to-meat ratio, feed prices, prices of inputs and outputs
种用消费
Seed consumption
播种面积、每亩种子用量
Seeded area, seed per mu
损耗
Wastage
产量、损耗系数
Production, wastage factor
贸易量
Trade (T)
进出口量
Import and export
国内外价差、关税、进出口配额、产需缺口和汇率等
Domestic and foreign price differences, tariffs, import and export quotas, production and demand gaps, exchange rates, etc.
价格
Price (P)
均衡价格指数
Equilibrium price index
生产因素、消费因素、政策因素、偶发因素等
Production factors, consumption factors, policy factors, incidental factors, etc.